686
FXUS61 KAKQ 281859
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
259 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE (~1006 MB), THE REMNANTS OF THIS PAST WEEKEND'S
NOR'EAST, CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT MAINTAINS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH A TIGHTLY- DEFINED SWIRL AND BANDING
FEATURES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST
AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
LEGITIMATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY OCTOBER BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH THE LOWER 90S ON THESE
DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE SFC AND UPPER-AIR SYNOPTICS
SUPPORT DRY WX THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SORT OF ELONGATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND/OR WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD,
LIKELY FROM THE S OR SW. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES, BUT SOME SORT OF COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT (AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/WAVE), PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY BY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
MODEST INCREASE IN PWATS DURING THIS TIME. INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS COOLER TEMPS, BUT NOT ABNORMALLY SO. HIGHS
SATURDAY LIKELY RANGE THROUGH THE 70S AND 80S, WITH 70S SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VA. CIGS HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED TO VFR (IN THE 3-5K FT AGL
RANGE), THOUGH MVFR CIGS PERSIST AT SBY. EXPECT CLOUD BASES TO
INCREASE A BIT FURTHER HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND EVEN VFR IS
PROBABLE AT SBY. DESPITE SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS, CLOUDS
TONIGHT WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. A 5-10 KT
WNW WIND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND (AS MENTIONED
ABOVE) BECOMES LIGHT TONIGHT. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL
TERMINALS TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 615 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUING TO STEADILY
WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF THE NJ COAST. THE SURFACE LOW HAS WEAKENED
TO 1004MB, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOCALLY, WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY OUT OF THE NW
~10-15 KT. SCAS FOR NORTHERN WATERS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
ALSO WERE LOWERED ON TIME WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER. WEAK RIDGING FROM THE HIGH TO THE
W-NW BUILDS IN THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING W-NW
WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAR MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LIGHT W-NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TURN ONSHORE WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR WINDS TO BACK TO
THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES BY THE
WEEKEND.
WAVES 1-2 FT (UP TO 3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY) AND SEAS
OF 2-3 FT SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THIS MORNING, WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LOW RISK TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM/MRD
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