821
FXUS61 KAKQ 290552
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
152 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
LOW PRESSURE (~1006 MB), THE REMNANTS OF THIS PAST WEEKEND'S
NOR'EAST, CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT MAINTAINS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH A TIGHTLY- DEFINED SWIRL AND BANDING
FEATURES. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE MIDWEST
AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
LEGITIMATE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY OCTOBER BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH THE LOWER 90S ON THESE
DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE SFC AND UPPER-AIR SYNOPTICS
SUPPORT DRY WX THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SORT OF ELONGATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND/OR WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD,
LIKELY FROM THE S OR SW. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK OF THESE FEATURES, BUT SOME SORT OF COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT (AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/WAVE), PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY BY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
MODEST INCREASE IN PWATS DURING THIS TIME. INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP
AND ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS COOLER TEMPS, BUT NOT ABNORMALLY SO. HIGHS
SATURDAY LIKELY RANGE THROUGH THE 70S AND 80S, WITH 70S SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 155 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. DESPITE SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS, CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AGL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO LIMIT
ANY FOG POTENTIAL, THOUGH SOME SPOTTY MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE SOME LIMITED CLEARING CAN OCCUR. REMAINING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY, THOUGH CIGS REMAIN SAFELY VFR ACROSS TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS BECOME N-NW AT RIC/SBY,E-NE THIS AFTERNOON
PHF/ECG/ORF. A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER TOMORROW NIGHT WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS HAVE INCREASED AOA 60% AT RIC/SBY, WITH LOWER BUT
STILL NOTABLE PROBABILITY RISES AT PHF/ECG.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL,
PREVAILING VFR LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUING TO STEADILY
WEAKEN, BUT STILL LINGERING SE OF LONG ISLAND. ALL MARINE
HEADLINES HAVE ENDED, WITH SEAS GENERALLY ONLY ~2 FT NEARSHORE
AND 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE. N-NW WINDS AVERAGE 10 KT OR LESS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR FAR MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK. LIGHT W-NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE W/ THE SEABREEZE (INCREASING A BIT FROM
THE S-SE WED NIGHT BUT STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA). OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 15 KT ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA HEADLINES
COMES BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AS THE NEXT FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION BEFORE
EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM,
WITH A LOW RISK TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...LKB/MAM
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