655
FXUS61 KAKQ 291057
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
657 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z/AVIATION DISCUSSION.
- INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON THU/FRI
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASED SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE (~1010 MB)
CENTERED NEAR CAPE COD; THE REMNANTS OF THIS PAST WEEKEND'S
NOR'EASTER. WHILE THE SYSTEM STILL MAINTAINS A RELATIVELY
IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN EARLY MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY,
IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ACCELERATES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS EVEN DEVELOPED
NORTH OF THE RIC METRO LATE LAST NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EXITING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, AS BROAD 1018+ MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS GRADUALLY
BUILDS EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE CONUS. THE
RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARM-UP THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THAT TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AREA- WIDE, WITH
READINGS NEAR 80 INLAND. CLEARING COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S AT THE COAST.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TOMORROW, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
FLIRT WITH THE LOWER 90S ON THESE DAYS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FRIDAY AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING MAXIMIZES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOOKS TO OPEN
UP BY MIDWEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF TC POLO
AND LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGE A BIT AND ALLOW AN INFLUX OF GULF AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND MID-SOUTH, POTENTIALLY
REACHING OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE FEATURES, BUT A
COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW/WAVE, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY/MONDAY. ONE SIGNAL COMMON TO ALL GUIDANCE,
EVEN THIS FAR OUT, IS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN PWATS, WITH VALUES
POTENTIALLY REACHING 1.5-2" BY SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
SETTLING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POTENTIALLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES, INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND ONSHORE FLOW FAVOR
COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NOT
ABNORMALLY SO. HIGHS SATURDAY LIKELY RANGE THROUGH THE 70S AND
80S, WITH HIGHER POPS AND CLOUD COVER BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. DESPITE SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS, CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER BETWEEN 4-6 KFT AGL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO LIMIT
ANY FOG POTENTIAL, THOUGH SOME SPOTTY MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOTED
WHERE SOME LIMITED CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY GROUND FOG SW OF THE TERMINALS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL VA AND NE NC THROUGH 12Z OR SO. OTHERWISE, REMAINING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY, THOUGH CIGS REMAIN SAFELY VFR
ACROSS TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS BECOME N-NW AT RIC/SBY,E-NE THIS
AFTERNOON PHF/ECG/ORF. A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG EARLY
WED MORNING. 00Z HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS
HAVE INCREASED AOA 60% AT PHF/SBY, WITH LOWER BUT STILL NOTABLE
PROBABILITY RISES ALSO OBSERVED AT RIC/ECG. HAVE INCLUDED FOG
MENTION AT PHF/SBY LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: ASIDE FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL,
PREVAILING VFR LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS WEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOR'EASTER WEAKENED OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE AREA,
CENTERING OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KT GENERALLY OUT OF THE W-NW TODAY, AND WILL
LOCALLY BECOME ONSHORE WITH THE SEABREEZE. WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND OVERNIGHT S-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO ~10 KT, REMAINING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM, WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SW AND INCREASE
TO ~15 KT BOTH NIGHTS. WAVES AND SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BE 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT, RESPECTIVELY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
SCA HEADLINES COMES BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE NEXT FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION
BEFORE EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL BEACHES TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MAM/SW
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...KMC/LKB
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