020
FXUS61 KAKQ 300701
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT WARMER TODAY. A SHORT-LIVED WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND A BIT WARMER TODAY. A SHORT-LIVED WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST. TO THE WEST,
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING.
FINALLY GETTING A BIT OF CLEARING TO THE WEST, WHICH HAS CLEARED
THE WAY FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN NECK TO
RIC METRO AND THE PIEDMONT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL, BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
FOR THE MORNING RUSH IN THESE AREAS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
FOR ANY STATEMENTS THAT MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THE FOG AND STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING AND
WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE
MUCH OF THE REGION, AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE S-SE BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGH SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 80F ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE REMAINS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES BECOMING VERY WARM THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW INCREASES. STILL NOT
ANTICIPATING RECORD HIGHS, BUT HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S
THURSDAY, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY IS ABOUT 10-15 F
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF OCTOBER AND QUALIFIES AS
"UNSEASONABLY WARM".
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOOKS TO OPEN
UP BY MIDWEEK AS IT ABSORBS THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF TC POLO
AND LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE AND ALLOW AN INFLUX OF GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST AND MID-SOUTH, LIKELY REACHING OUR REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. ONE SIGNAL COMMON TO ALL GUIDANCE, EVEN THIS FAR
OUT, IS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN PWATS, WITH VALUES POTENTIALLY
REACHING 1.5-2" BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES, TRENDS ARE FAVORING PUSHING THAT FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH THE FRONT THEN
SLOWING OR STALLING SAT NIGHT, AS ADDITIONAL AND LIKELY MORE
SIGNIFICANT SWATHS OF MOISTURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND
SHIFT ON SATURDAY, THE HIGHER CHANCES AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL HAS TRENDED A BIT LATER INTO SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE (ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THIS WOULD BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT).
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND ONSHORE
FLOW FAVOR COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT ABNORMALLY SO. HIGHS SATURDAY LIKELY RANGE THROUGH THE
70S AND 80S, WITH HIGHER POPS AND CLOUD COVER BRINGING COOLER
UPPER 60S AND 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WOULD BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWS INTO THE 40S AND 50S- THIS IS STILL MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC VFR
CIGS HANG ON ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. HAVE BEGUN TO
NOTE SOME CLEARING INLAND, BUT CLEARING WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
INTO THE MORNING ALONG THE COAST. WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE VA PIEDMONT, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS STILL LIKELY
LATE, AND HAVE MAINTAINED THIS MENTION IN THE 06Z TAFS. ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE LATER MORNING. EVENTUALLY EXPECT A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND PREDOMINATE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SSE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR LOOKS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE AREA, THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
THU/FRI. S-SW WINDS BECOME ELEVATED/BREEZY ON FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT/THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE DAY, BECOMING S-SE AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. S WINDS
OF 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. S WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT WITH ~1 FT WAVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SEAS AROUND 3 FT AND UP TO 4 FT IN NORTHERN
WATERS AND 1-2 FT WAVES ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NE AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BEHIND IT. BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE MET
WITH THE FRONT IN THE CHES. BAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LOCAL WIND
PROBS SHOW A 40-50% CHC OF SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS OVER THE CHES. BAY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NEXT SOLID CHANCE FOR SCAS AS OF NOW LOOKS
TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...AC/KMC
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