306
FXUS61 KAKQ 010545
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
145 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY DRYING OUT AND REMAINING
COOL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST, EXTENDING NE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG/OR JUST OFF THE COAST. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SCT-BKN CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTN, THOUGH THIS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOWER
60S, SO OVERALL A FAIRLY PLEASANT END TO SEPTEMBER FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, SOME OF THIS IS
ALREADY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING
OFFSHORE, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY FOG
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED (BEST
CHANCES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST, RANGING FROM AS LOW AS THE
MID 50S IN THE COOLEST PIEDMONT LOCATIONS TO THE UPPER 60S AT
THE COAST IN THE SE.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE SE
COAST THURSDAY-FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE SFC HIGH TO SLIDE WELL
OFFSHORE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME VERY WARM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL S-SW FLOW INCREASES; HIGHS INTO THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90F THURSDAY, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
FRIDAY IS ABOUT 10-15 F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF OCTOBER
AND QUALIFIES AS "UNSEASONABLY WARM". HAVE INCLUDED RECORD HIGHS
IN A CLIMATE SECTION FOR FRIDAY SINCE NORFOLK MAY BE CLOSE
(RECORDS ARE VERY UNLIKELY ELSEWHERE).
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY
DRYING OUT AND REMAINING COOL NEXT WEEK.
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOOKS TO OPEN
UP ON THURSDAY AS IT ABSORBS THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF TC POLO
AND LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO DAMPEN THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND ALLOW AN INFLUX OF GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND MID-SOUTH, LIKELY REACHING OUR REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE SIGNAL COMMON TO ALL GUIDANCE, EVEN THIS
FAR OUT, IS A NOTABLE INCREASE IN PWATS, WITH VALUES REACHING
1.5-2.0" BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN, TRENDS ARE FAVORING PUSHING THAT FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH THE FRONT THEN SLOWING OR
STALLING SAT NIGHT, AS ADDITIONAL, AND LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANT
SWATHS OF MOISTURE RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT ON SATURDAY, THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
(AND BULK OF THE QPF) IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING FROM NW TO SE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE (ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE
BENEFICIAL GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT). 12Z/30 ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR
1"+ OF TOTAL RAINFALL ARE PUSHED FARTHER NORTH FROM THE EPS
(EURO) COMPARED TO THE GEFS, WHICH KEEPS 50% CHANCES CONFINED TO
TO SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP AND ONSHORE
FLOW FAVOR MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MANY AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID-
UPPER 60S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH). LATEST MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH OF DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUE-WED. THE LREF ROBS EVEN
SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR LOWS INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT BY WED AM.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
08Z OR SO AT KECG, AND TOWARD SUNRISE FARTHER INLAND...BUT
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS. LIGHT S-SE WINDS BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KT LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR WITH BREEZY S-SW WINDS 10-15KT, GUSTING TO ~20 KT
ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-SUB-ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE CHES. BAY EARLY
SAT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT
AND SEAS AROUND 2FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE SW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KT EXPECTED. BREEZY, BUT
LIKELY SUB-ADVISORY, CONDITIONS PERSIST ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING, LEADING WINDS TO TURN TO THE N/NE
BEHIND IT. THE INCOMING COOL, DRY AIR OVER THE WARM WATER COMBINED
WITH A STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO CAUSE A BRIEF SURGE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED
18KT WINDS ARE BETWEEN 60-80% OVER THE BAY AND UP TO 95% OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH WAVES AROUND 3FT IN THE BAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SUB-
ADVISORY LEVELS SAT AFTERNOON, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS RETURN TO ~3FT AND
WAVES TO ~1FT ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS STILL POINTS TO A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN SCAS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY FRIDAY, THOUGH NORFOLK MAY BE CLOSE SO
FOR REFERENCE, THEY ARE LISTED BELOW:
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY OCT 2ND:
- RIC: 98 (2019)
- ORF: 93 (2019)
- SBY: 96 (2019)
- ECG: 93 (1986)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...AC/KMC
CLIMATE...
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