016
FXUS61 KAKQ 010711
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSION.
- RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY DRYING OUT
AND REMAINING COOL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, EXTENDING OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN UPSTREAM DEEP CLOSED LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, ~1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST, RIDGING INLAND JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL NC.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY, BECOMING
CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT; THE RESULTING HEIGHT RISES AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F INLAND, WITH LOW-TO-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTER A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S, FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER,
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THESE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY
10-15°F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER AND CERTAINLY QUALIFY AS
"UNSEASONABLY WARM." RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 1-2 ARE IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER 90S, SO RECORD HIGHS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN, THOUGH NORFOLK (ORF) COULD GET CLOSE. RECORD HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY ARE AGAIN INCLUDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND AND COOL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED
UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT E-NE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT INGESTS THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANTS OF TC POLO BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN-
STREAM TROUGH. THAT TROUGH THEN DIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS DAMPENS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND ALLOWS AN INFLUX
OF GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND MID-
SOUTH, REACHING OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LIKELY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AN AXIS OF INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5-2.0" BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND
SHIFT ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER AND LAPSE RATES
REMAIN SHALLOW, MINIMIZING ANY THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS, THOUGH
GUSTY N-NE WINDS ARE LIKELY POST-FRONTAL. THE BULK OF THE QPF
AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, CLEARING FROM NW TO SE. 00Z/01 ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR 1"+ OF TOTAL RAINFALL ARE DISPLACED FARTHER
NORTH ALONG/EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CAD WEDGE AXIS PER THE EPS
AND CMC, WHILE THE GEFS REMAINS SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH. A
SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THE UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS OF THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE WEEKEND. CLOUD
COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY (MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH). GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHARP COOL DOWN ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR, AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LREF
PROBABILITIES EVEN HINT AT A CHANCE FOR LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NW PIEDMONT ZONES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
08Z OR SO AT KECG, AND TOWARD SUNRISE FARTHER INLAND...BUT
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS. LIGHT S-SE WINDS BECOME S-SW AT 5-10 KT LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR WITH BREEZY S-SW WINDS 10-15KT, GUSTING TO ~20 KT
ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE CHES. BAY EARLY
SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- A STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND LIKELY
BRINGS ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LOCAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA, SLIDING OFFSHORE FURTHER TODAY.
WITH ITS INFLUENCE, BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE S THIS MORNING ~5 KT,
INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KT BY OVERNIGHT. BREEZY SW WINDS, BUT
LIKELY SUB-ADVISORY AT 10-15 KT, PERSIST ON FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING, LEADING WINDS TO TURN TO THE N/NE
BEHIND IT. THE INCOMING COOL, DRY AIR OVER THE WARM WATER COMBINED
WITH A STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO CAUSE A BRIEF SURGE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS, NOW SHOWING 40-50%
OVER THE CHES. BAY AND 60-80% OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH WAVES AROUND 3FT IN THE
BAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS SAT AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY-
TUESDAY. THE STRONGER CAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCAS FOR THE CHES.
BAY FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES AND THE COASTAL WATERS FOR AT LEAST
ELEVATED SEAS. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE A TIMING
DISCREPANCY, WHICH SHOULD BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK ACROSS ALL BEACHES TODAY. WITH
INCREASING SEAS TO ~3 FT AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ON THE NORTHERN
BEACHES, A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A LOW
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY FRIDAY, THOUGH NORFOLK MAY BE CLOSE SO
FOR REFERENCE, THEY ARE LISTED BELOW:
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY OCT 2ND:
- RIC: 98 (2019)
- ORF: 93 (2019)
- SBY: 96 (2019)
- ECG: 93 (1986)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...AC/KMC
CLIMATE...
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