362
FXUS61 KAKQ 011900
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED DISCUSSION.
- RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR THIS WEEKEND, THEN GRADUALLY DRYING OUT
AND REMAINING COOL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, EXTENDING OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AN UPSTREAM DEEP CLOSED LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, ~1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST, RIDGING INLAND JUST TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL NC.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY, BECOMING
CENTERED ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT; THE RESULTING HEIGHT RISES AND S-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F INLAND, WITH LOW-TO-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTER A
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S, FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER,
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THESE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY
10-15F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER AND CERTAINLY QUALIFY AS
"UNSEASONABLY WARM." RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 1-2 ARE IN THE MID-
TO-UPPER 90S, SO RECORD HIGHS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE
BROKEN, THOUGH NORFOLK (ORF) COULD GET CLOSE. RECORD HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY ARE AGAIN INCLUDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND AND COOL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED
UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT E-NE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT INGESTS THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANTS OF TC POLO BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN-
STREAM TROUGH. THAT TROUGH THEN DIGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS DAMPENS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND ALLOWS AN INFLUX
OF GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND MID-
SOUTH, REACHING OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LIKELY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AN AXIS OF INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.5-2.0" BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND
SHIFT ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER AND LAPSE RATES
REMAIN SHALLOW, MINIMIZING ANY THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS, THOUGH
GUSTY N-NE WINDS ARE LIKELY POST-FRONTAL. THE BULK OF THE QPF
AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, CLEARING FROM NW TO SE. 00Z/01 ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR 1"+ OF TOTAL RAINFALL ARE DISPLACED FARTHER
NORTH ALONG/EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CAD WEDGE AXIS PER THE EPS
AND CMC, WHILE THE GEFS REMAINS SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH. A
SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THE UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS OF THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE WEEKEND. CLOUD
COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY (MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH). GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHARP COOL DOWN ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONG PUSH OF DRIER AIR, AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LREF
PROBABILITIES EVEN HINT AT A CHANCE FOR LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NW PIEDMONT ZONES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/01 TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
IS NOW CENTERED OFFSHORE, ALLOWING SW WINDS TO PICK UP TO
AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, THEN BREEZY SW WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD STAY FEW-SCT, THEN SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD IN LATER IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- A STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND LIKELY
BRINGS ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.
THIS AFTERNOON, ~1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST AND
EXTENDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE S TO SW AND ARE
AVERAGING ~10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE GENERALLY 1 FOOT OR LESS. THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR NW. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK IN WINDS TONIGHT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS (~15 KNOTS
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS), BUT WE WILL STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, TURNING WINDS TO THE N-NE IN ITS WAKE. THE INCOMING COOL, DRY
AIR OVER THE WARM WATER COMBINED WITH A STILL TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOKS TO CAUSE A BRIEF SURGE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST
LOCAL WIND PROBS ARE STILL SHOWING ~40 TO 50% FOR SUSTAINED 18 KNOTS
OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ~60 TO 80% OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BUILD TO AROUND
3 FEET. SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NE-E THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE STRONGER CAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCAS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FOR ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS.
THERE IS MODERATE RIP RISK AT THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND LOW RIP RISK
FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON FRIDAY. A MODERATE RIP RISK IS EXPECTED
AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY FRIDAY, THOUGH NORFOLK MAY BE CLOSE SO
FOR REFERENCE, THEY ARE LISTED BELOW:
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY OCT 2ND:
- RIC: 98 (2019)
- ORF: 93 (2019)
- SBY: 96 (2019)
- ECG: 93 (1986)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/KMC
CLIMATE...
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