051
FXUS61 KAKQ 012302
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
702 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND AND COOL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TOMORROW.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST. BREEZY SW FLOW AND HEIGHT RISES
HAVE LED TO A WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST OBS
SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TOMORROW,
THE HIGH STAYS JUST OFFSHORE WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA LIKELY REACHING 90F. RECORD HIGHS (INCLUDED IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION) ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR OCT 2ND, SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY BROKEN RECORDS, THOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE IN ORF AND
ECG. AVERAGES FOR EARLY OCTOBER, FOR REFERENCE, ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. A COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING ABOUT A QUICK PATTERN CHANGE AND RETURN TO NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DRYING TREND AND COOL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NOT A TON OF SUPPORT ALOFT
BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT, BUT IT IS ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOCAL REGION. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
EARLY AS LATE FRI NIGHT, BUT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY MID-DAY/AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COUNTIES AT ~70% AND
TAPERING TO ~30% IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
HAS TRENDED A BIT FASTER, WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER TEMPS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. FORECAST
HIGHS FOR SAT ARE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE BULK OF THE QPF AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT
WHICH IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. THERE IS HIGH MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
SUN WILL BE WET WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE AREA BETWEEN THE COLD FRONTS. POPS OF 70-80% SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF NW TO SE LATE SUN
INTO EARLY MON. QPF THROUGH SUN EVENING HAS A WIDESPREAD 1-1.5" WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF RICHMOND. NBM PROBS FOR OVER AN INCH SHOW 60-75% FOR THE
BULK OF THE AREA (HIGHEST SW) AND THE 12Z EURO ENS AND GEFS HAS 30-
50%, WHICH IS AN INCREASE FROM THE 00Z RUNS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF THUNDER DUE TO VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY, BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A STRONG AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR EVEN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND BY
MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 702 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z/02 TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE, ALLOWING SW WINDS TO PERSIST UP TO AROUND
10KT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10KT THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE
SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS REENTER THE AREA BY 12Z.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- A STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND LIKELY
BRINGS ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.
THIS AFTERNOON, ~1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST AND
EXTENDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE S TO SW AND ARE
AVERAGING ~10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET WHILE WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE GENERALLY 1 FOOT OR LESS. THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR NW. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT DIURNAL UPTICK IN WINDS TONIGHT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS (~15 KNOTS
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS), BUT WE WILL STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
BREEZY SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, TURNING WINDS TO THE N-NE IN ITS WAKE. THE INCOMING COOL, DRY
AIR OVER THE WARM WATER COMBINED WITH A STILL TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOKS TO CAUSE A BRIEF SURGE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST
LOCAL WIND PROBS ARE STILL SHOWING ~40 TO 50% FOR SUSTAINED 18 KNOTS
OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ~60 TO 80% OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BUILD TO AROUND
3 FEET. SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NE-E THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE STRONGER CAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCAS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FOR ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS.
THERE IS MODERATE RIP RISK AT THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND LOW RIP RISK
FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON FRIDAY. A MODERATE RIP RISK IS EXPECTED
AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY FRIDAY, THOUGH NORFOLK MAY BE CLOSE SO
FOR REFERENCE, THEY ARE LISTED BELOW:
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY OCT 2ND:
- RIC: 98 (2019)
- ORF: 93 (2019)
- SBY: 96 (2019)
- ECG: 93 (1986)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC/HET
MARINE...AJB/KMC
CLIMATE...
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