709
FXUS61 KAKQ 021729
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
129 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 12Z AVIATION UPDATE
- ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FURTHER DOWNWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST WEEKEND QPF SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY TODAY.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AND
COOL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY TODAY.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE TODAY BRINGS THAT LAST SHOT OF >90 F
TEMPERATURES UNTIL NEXT YEAR. THIS HEAT WILL BE FUELED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 90
F FOR MAINLAND VA AND NC AND IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR THE
EASTERN SHORE. A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL TEND TO KEEP EVEN THOSE
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA NEARLY AS WARM AS THOSE WELL
INLAND. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO SHOULD KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE HUMIDITY AT BAY, WITH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 60S. RECORDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF REACH BUT HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE 'CLIMATE' SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND AND COOL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUR
AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT IS VERY
FLAT, SO THIS FRONT WON'T HAVE MUCH VIGOR TO IT. REGARDLESS, A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES S, MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT MORE WIDESPREAD (ANAFRONTAL) RAIN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (60-70%) IN A
CORRIDOR FROM THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE RICHMOND METRO AND
NORTHERN NECK. POPS TAPER OFF TO 20-40% ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC,
THOUGH WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP, HAVE UNDERCUT THE NBM HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S FOR MOST
OF OUR VA COUNTIES, EXCEPT AROUND 70 F NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.
WARMEST ACROSS NE NC AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
WHERE MID- UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST.
THE BULK OF THE QPF AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT,
WHICH IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY WILL BE WET WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA BETWEEN THE COLD FRONTS. THE
INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CATEGORICAL (80-
90%) POPS SPREADING E/NE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A WIDESPREAD 1-1.5"
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON WHERE THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL SET UP. IN GENERAL, THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN THE HIGHEST TOTALS, NOW IN THE SOUTHERN VA INTO
NE NC AREAS. THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO
2". TOTALS GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS QUITE LOW DUE TO COOL SFC TEMPS, BUT A
BRIEF INCREASE IN CAPE ACROSS THE FAR SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
ALLOW FOR AN EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO. SPEAKING OF TEMPS: AGAIN
CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE NBM GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID-UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE.
A STRONG AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR EVEN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE 40S INLAND BY MID WEEK. THERE IS EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPPER
30S, AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
IN CONTROL AND ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CLOUDS FILL IN
AND LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW FROM N TO S AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS BY EARLY SAT. SHOWER CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT SBY UNTIL
AFTER 06Z. WILL THEN SEE INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST
TERMINALS LIKELY DON'T SEE PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
LIKELY BRINGS ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NW OF THE
LOCAL WATERS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WIND IS PRIMARILY
SSW 10-15KT WITH 2-3FT SEAS, AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SW
AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 2-3FT SEAS, AND 1-2FT WAVES
IN THE CHES. BAY.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS S ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A SHALLOW CAA SURGE FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 60-70% CHC OF SUSTAINED 18KT
ACROSS THE CHES. BAY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE WIND WILL BECOME N ACROSS THE CHES. BAY AND SHOULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 15-20KT, BEFORE TRENDING TO NNE SATURDAY
MORNING, AND THEN NE BY SATURDAY AFTN WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHES. BAY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTN FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO SMITH POINT,
FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATER SATURDAY AFTN FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY TO NEW POINT COMFORT, AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AS
WELL FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY SATURDAY AFTN GIVEN A
FAVORABLE NE COMPONENT TO THE WIND. ELSEWHERE, LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR
25KT GUSTS ARE LESS THAN 30% FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SUSTAINED
25KT PROBS ARE NEGLIGIBLE. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH AT
LEAST 5FT IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE CURRITUCK SOUND MAY HAVE A PERIOD WITH A 15-20KT NNE WIND LATER
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIVERS SHOULD
BE SUB-SCA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE COAST
LATER MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER CAA SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA WITH A NNE WIND
OF 20-25KT GUSTING TO NEAR 30KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6FT
N TO 5-7FT S.
THERE IS MODERATE RIP RISK AT THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND LOW RIP RISK
FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES TODAY. A MODERATE RIP RISK IS EXPECTED AT
ALL AREA BEACHES ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY (10/2):
- RIC: 98 (2019)
- ORF: 93 (2019)
- SBY: 96 (2019)
- ECG: 93 (1986)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ639.
DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...
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