251
FXUS61 KAKQ 161831
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
231 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z.
SPC CONTINUED A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT.
STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH GALE WATCHES FOR THE UPPER RIVERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTY SHOWERS
(ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH FROST POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
3) THERE STILL REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM LINGERING OFFSHORE OR RETROGRADING
BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND BREEZY TODAY WITH
GUSTY SHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DUE TO A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN NECK OVER TO THE MD EASTERN
SHORE. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DISSIPATES RATHER QUICKLY LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY.
AN EXPANSIVE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL DRIVE RAPID, LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 90F (UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE). THESE VALUES ARE ~15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
WILL CHALLENGE RECORD HIGHS, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
STILL EXPECTING THE DAYTIME HOURS TO REMAIN DRY AREA-WIDE. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW THIS EVENING, AND IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CAMS STILL DEPICT
A THIN, STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE ~500 J/KG OR LESS) SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, STRONG
KINEMATICS ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40+ MPH POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(MD EASTERN SHORE) WHERE THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER KINEMATICS. SPC HAS THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-64 FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.
FOR SATURDAY, THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND MOVES OFF THE COAST BY
THE MORNING, TRIGGERING A SHARP SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEEP MIXING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY NW
WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35+ MPH INLAND AND 40 TO 45+ MPH ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAIN CHANCES HANG ON INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (HIGHEST SE) AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
DOES NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL 18Z OR LATER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY, BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO BE 1035MB+, KEPT THE
THEME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND UNDERCUT NBM LOWS BY A FEW
DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE DECOUPLING IS MORE PROBABLE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE (LOWS INTO THE MID 30S). DEPENDING ON DEWPOINTS,
AT LEAST PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY
(POTENTIALLY MORE CLOUDS IN THE SE) WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ADDITIONAL FROST
POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING BACK INTO THE
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THERE STILL REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM LINGERING OFFSHORE OR
RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
CONSIDERABLE ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD EXISTS HEADING INTO
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH, WHILE AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID
ATLANTIC COAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW CLOSE THIS
COASTAL SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE SHORELINE, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS HAVING
THIS LOW RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE LOW END (SLIGHT CHANCE) RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS WILL BE REFINED
AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS COASTAL SYSTEM. BREEZY N TO NE
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED BACK NORTH OF THE REGION AS
EXPECTED, AND BREEZY W-SW WINDS TO 15-20 KT AT RIC/ORF/PHF/ECG
THROUGH 22Z OR SO. STILL EXPECTING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO DROP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FORA ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT, AS WELL AS BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND
SUB-VFR CIGS. A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARRIVES LATER SAT MORNING.
WINDS SHIFT N-NW POST-FRONTAL MAINLY BETWEEN 02-07Z (10P-3A EDT)
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND MORE WIDESPREAD (STRATIFORM) RAIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION. RAIN TAPERS OFF SATURDAY MORNING AT SBY, BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY AT RIC, BUT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT
PHF/ORF/ECG.
WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH POST-FRONTAL, BUT QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP
WITH ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, ESPECIALLY FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON INLAND, BUT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST, GUSTING TO 30-40 KT AT ORF/ECG SAT
AFTERNOON. HAVE MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS (ONLY BRIEFLY AT SBY).
OUTLOOK: AFTER BRIEF IMPROVEMENT, SUB-VFR CIGS DO LOOK TO
RETURN/LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS
A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 525 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SW WINDS INCREASE TODAY BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT, BRINGING
SCA CONDITIONS. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS SURGE. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH GALE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER
RIVERS.
- WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF FLOODING BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE TURNED TO THE S/SE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT S WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS SUB-
SCA, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS POTENTIALLY REACHING LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, HAVE SCAS
STARTING AT 7 PM FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE, SCAS START AT 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR N WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL NOTE THAT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT (PRESSURE
RISES OF AROUND 5 MB IN 6 HOURS), WINDS MAY ABRUPTLY BECOME N AND
GUST TO 35 KT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF THIS SURGE AND GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SURGE,
THINK SMWS ARE A BETTER WAY TO HANDLE THE SURGE.
THE STRONGER CAA LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE (~1038 MB) BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE HIGH
GRADUALLY GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH N WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT SAT
MORNING. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS/EURO/CMC) IS IN GREATER
AGREEMENT THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT BY
LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT AS A PIECE OF VORTICITY BECOMES CUTOFF ACROSS THE
REGION. IF A CUTOFF LOW DOES FORM ALOFT, THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK
GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT UNDERNEATH A LARGE, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
AS SUCH, MODELS SHOW THIS COASTAL LOW MEANDERING THROUGH MID-LATE
WEEK NEXT WEEK (SOME EVEN LONGER). IF THIS OCCURS, THE LOCAL WATERS
WOULD REMAIN UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. AS SUCH, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE GALE
CONDITIONS (WINDS INITIALLY BECOME NE SUN MORNING) COULD PERSIST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS, SEAS, BEACH EROSION, AND TIDAL FLOODING ARE
ALL POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE
LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT THE UPPER RIVERS BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER, EXTENSIONS OF THE GALE
WARNINGS ARE LIKELY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS) INTO
MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE LIMITED THE GALE WARNING TO SIX FORECAST
PERIODS (PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES) AND WILL LIKELY
KEEP EXTENDING BY ONE OR TWO FORECAST PERIODS AT A TIME (IF
CONFIDENCE ALLOWS) WITH EACH MAJOR FORECAST UPDATE. ADDITIONALLY,
HAVE GALE WATCHES FOR THE UPPER RIVERS FROM SAT EVENING THROUGH SAT
NIGHT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE AND A LATER TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE WAVE/SEA FORECAST THAN THE WINDS.
HOWEVER, CURRENTLY HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT NORTH AND 9-13 FT
SOUTH (12-15+ FT OFFSHORE) BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MEANWHILE, WAVES
BUILD TO 4-8 FT ACROSS THE CHES BAY (HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER CHES
BAY). WILL NOTE THAT IF A PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE WINDS AT GALE
CONDITIONS DOES DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS, SEAS COULD BE
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. GIVEN THE BUILDING SEAS, HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG AT LEAST THE OUTER BANKS AND
VIRGINIA BEACH AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AS WELL.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE START TIME FOR 8+ FT NEARSHORE WAVES IS
LOW BEFORE SAT NIGHT (FOURTH PERIOD). AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THIS UPDATE.
COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG NE WINDS NEXT WEEK,
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. TIDAL ANOMALIES BEGIN
TO INCREASE SATURDAY WITH MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE
ALONG THE LOWER CHES BAY. BY SUNDAY, WINDS BECOME NE, RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING WITH LOCALIZED
MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT
TIDAL FORECAST ONLY GOES THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL NOTE
THAT MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IF NE
WINDS TREND STRONG AND/OR LOOK TO LINGER SEVERAL DAYS. COASTAL
COMMUNITIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS
OF COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE NEXT WEEK AND STAY TUNED
AS THE FORECAST GETS REFINED AND DETAILS GET IRONED OUT.
CLIMATE
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI 10/16:
- RIC: 90 (1897) (LATEST IN SEASON 90F ON RECORD)
- ORF: 87 (2008) (LATEST IN SEASON 90F ON RECORD 10/14/2026)
- SBY: 85 (2008) (LATEST IN SEASON 90F ON RECORD 10/10/1939)
- ECG: 86 (2008) (LATEST IN SEASON 90F ON RECORD 10/10/1939)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ633.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633-
639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...LKB
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