488
FXUS61 KAKQ 170715
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
315 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF CURRITUCK
COUNTY.
RAIN CHANCES TODAY LIKELY LINGER INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPDATED TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COOLER WITH RAIN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS/BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
2) PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY.
3) THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A NOR'EASTER
LINGERING OFFSHORE OR RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
4) LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT EXPECTED STARTING AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH EXPANSION OF COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES LIKELY
TO OTHER AREAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH COOLER WITH RAIN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS/BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A POTENT COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA (CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND). IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
N-NW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 50S FOR N/NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE LOCAL AREA COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT AN OVERRUNNING/ANAFRONTAL SETUP IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON
INLAND AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SE. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NW BY
LATE MORNING, WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND ESPECIALLY VIRGINIA BEACH AND
CURRITUCK COUNTY, THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK STARTING AT NOON TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY.
ANY STEADY RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WITH CLEARING
CONTINUING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG, 1030+ MB,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER
AND CHILLY AIR TO FILTER INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE MID 30S (AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOWER 30S) IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER, SHELTERED RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, UPPER 30S
ALONG I-95, AND MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. WHILE SOME
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY
COOLER AND SHELTERED PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, A PERSISTENT 5 TO 10 MPH
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING. THEREFORE, NO
FROST HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT LOCALLY AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER/FALL-LIKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY,
WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS.
ANOTHER PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE FOR FAR NW PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY AM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
NOR'EASTER LINGERING OFFSHORE OR RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A NOR'EASTER LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS TO THE SHORELINE, THOUGH MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND 100-200 MILES OFF THE SOUTHERN VA OR NC
COAST. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED TO THE 12Z SUITE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT CENTER POSITION, HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST (30-
50% POP) ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
INLAND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S INLAND TO 50S AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT EXPECTED
STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH EXPANSION OF
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES LIKELY TO OTHER AREAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
NORTH WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO BUILD FIRST
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TIDE ANOMALIES TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, WE ARE CURRENTLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE TIDE CYCLE. EVEN SO, MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS FORECAST
AT LYNNHAVEN, JAMESTOWN AND SMITHFIELD WITH THE SUNDAY HIGH TIDE. AS
THE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, EXPECT THE ANOMALIES TO BUILD AND IMPACT THE OCEAN
FRONT, AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. BY MONDAY, MANY SITES SOUTH OF WINDMILL POINT AND ALONG THE
OCEAN FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE INTO MODERATE FLOODING, INCLUDING
SEWELLS PT. LYNNHAVEN, JAMESTOWN AND SMITHFIELD ARE FORECAST TO
MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY. CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF WIND SPEED ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK. NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIDE FORECAST ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN WHAT THE ACTUAL TIDE VALUES
WILL BE. PETSS STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR MANY
SITES SO USERS NEED TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND IS
CURRENTLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF ECG. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NW, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, AND MVFR CIGS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA. CIGS MAY APPROACH IFR AT THE SE
TERMINALS (ECG, ORF, PHF) LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION, MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE SE TERMINALS MAY RESULT
IN OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS LATER THIS MORNING. RAIN TAPERS OFF
FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS MORNING AT SBY, BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON AT RIC, BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AT PHF AND POSSIBLY EVEN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT ORF/ECG.
WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH POST-FRONTAL, BUT QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP
WITH ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-15Z.
EXPECT WINDS TO FREQUENTLY GUST TO 30-35 KT AT ORF/ECG, AND
25-30 KT ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS BECOME VFR INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS, AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST, PERIODIC SUB-VFR CIGS MAY RE-
DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY-TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS (WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 25-30 KT)
AS A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD NORTHERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS START SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND LIKELY BEYOND AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STEADY AT SW 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EVEN MORE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE OPTED
TO START THE SCA IN THE BAY/RIVERS WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GUSTS TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND
11PM THIS, THEN EXIT THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY 4AM SAT MORNING. THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF SURGE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS MAY OCCUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS NOT
UNEXPECTED WITH THESE TYPE OF STRONG AUTUMN COLD FRONTS. HOWEVER,
THIS WIND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY RELAX BEFORE THE
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD GALES MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR, WE WILL LIKELY HANDLE WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS SINCE
IT WILL BE LESS THAN 3 HOURS IN DURATION.
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TO ULTIMATELY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE GALES STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GALES IN PLACE IN
ALL ZONES AND IN FACT EXTEND THE GALES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OFFSHORE ON INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD (AND POSSIBLY
WESTWARD) INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES WHICH
WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
EARLIER, WHICH WOULD BRING POTENTIALLY A ROUND OF STORM FORCE GUST
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH, WHICH WOULD LIKELY DELAY ANY STORM FORCE GUSTS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THEM EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NBM WHICH SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW STORM FORCE FOR
NOW. STILL, STORM WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS WEEKEND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
OFFSHORE FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO MID WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND THE MODEL THAT WOULD BRING THE WORST
IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA. GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT
STILL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AND CONTINUED HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A
LONG DURATION EVENT WITH GALES LIKELY CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK IF
NOT BEYOND.
CLIMATE
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET FRI 10/16:
- RIC: NO RECORD SET.
- ORF: 87 *TIES (2008).
- SBY: NO RECORD SET.
- ECG: 86 *TIES (2008)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ097-098-529>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>634-639-650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ632>634-639-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ650.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...MRD
CLIMATE...LKB
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