440
FXUS61 KAKQ 170954
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
554 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF CURRITUCK
COUNTY.
RAIN CHANCES TODAY LIKELY LINGER INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPDATED TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COOLER WITH RAIN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS/BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
2) PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY.
3) THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A NOR'EASTER
LINGERING OFFSHORE OR RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
4) LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT EXPECTED STARTING AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH EXPANSION OF COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES LIKELY
TO OTHER AREAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH COOLER WITH RAIN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS/BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A POTENT COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA (CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND). IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
N-NW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 50S FOR N/NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE LOCAL AREA COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT AN OVERRUNNING/ANAFRONTAL SETUP IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON
INLAND AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SE. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NW BY
LATE MORNING, WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND ESPECIALLY VIRGINIA BEACH AND
CURRITUCK COUNTY, THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK STARTING AT NOON TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY.
ANY STEADY RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WITH CLEARING
CONTINUING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG, 1030+ MB,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER
AND CHILLY AIR TO FILTER INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE MID 30S (AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOWER 30S) IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER, SHELTERED RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, UPPER 30S
ALONG I-95, AND MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. WHILE SOME
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY
COOLER AND SHELTERED PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, A PERSISTENT 5 TO 10 MPH
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING. THEREFORE, NO
FROST HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT LOCALLY AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER/FALL-LIKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY,
WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS.
ANOTHER PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE FOR FAR NW PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY AM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
NOR'EASTER LINGERING OFFSHORE OR RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A NOR'EASTER LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS TO THE SHORELINE, THOUGH MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND 100-200 MILES OFF THE SOUTHERN VA OR NC
COAST. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED TO THE 12Z SUITE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT CENTER POSITION, HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST (30-
50% POP) ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
INLAND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S INLAND TO 50S AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT EXPECTED
STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH EXPANSION OF
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES LIKELY TO OTHER AREAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
NORTH WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO BUILD FIRST
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TIDE ANOMALIES TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, WE ARE CURRENTLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE TIDE CYCLE. EVEN SO, MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS FORECAST
AT LYNNHAVEN, JAMESTOWN AND SMITHFIELD WITH THE SUNDAY HIGH TIDE. AS
THE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, EXPECT THE ANOMALIES TO BUILD AND IMPACT THE OCEAN
FRONT, AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. BY MONDAY, MANY SITES SOUTH OF WINDMILL POINT AND ALONG THE
OCEAN FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE INTO MODERATE FLOODING, INCLUDING
SEWELLS PT. LYNNHAVEN, JAMESTOWN AND SMITHFIELD ARE FORECAST TO
MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY. CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF WIND SPEED ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK. NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIDE FORECAST ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN WHAT THE ACTUAL TIDE VALUES
WILL BE. PETSS STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR MANY
SITES SO USERS NEED TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 555 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N,
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS DEVELOPED, AND MVFR CIGS
ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM NW
TO SE LATER THIS MORNING AT SBY, BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AT
RIC, BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT PHF AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT ORF/ECG. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR AT ORF/PHF LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF IFR. CIGS IMPROVE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TO SE WITH ALL LOCATIONS
RETURNING TO VFR BY LATE EVENING OR TONIGHT AT THE LATEST.
WINDS QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP WITH ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-15Z. EXPECT WINDS TO FREQUENTLY GUST TO
30-35 KT AT ORF/ECG, AND 25-30 KT ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR FOR INLAND SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, PERIODIC SUB-VFR CIGS MAY RE-DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY-TUESDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS (WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 25-30 KT) AS A
NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS START THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY BEYOND AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
AND DEEPENS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR STORM WATCHES
AT THIS TIME.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-15 FT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE N 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MEANWHILE, SEAS WERE 3-5 FT. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM. THE
STRONGER CAA REACHES THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 7-10 AM
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH N WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 KT. THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AS
A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS. HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCHES TO GALE
WARNINGS ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED
FARTHER OFFSHORE WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN GALE
CONDITIONS ON SUN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. HAVE BLENDED NBM AND
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN LOWER WINDS SUN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL HIGHER
THAN THE HRRR AND NAM (FOR SUN) AND MAY BE TOO HIGH. IN ANY CASE,
HAVE GALE WARNINGS ENDING AT 7 AM SUN FOR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
UPPER RIVERS AND 1 PM SUN FOR THE MD NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW GRADUALLY TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MON. AS SUCH, STILL THINK WINDS RAMP UP AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CLOSER LOCATION OF THE LOW
ON MON. THEREFORE, EXPECT NE-N WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON INTO MON NIGHT.
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A RETURN TO GALE CONDITIONS (AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION BREAK BETWEEN GALE CONDITIONS ON
SUN) ACROSS THE MD COASTAL WATERS, HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM 7
AM MON THROUGH 7 AM TUE. ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS,
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM TUE. HOWEVER, THESE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE 00Z
TREND OF THE LOW POTENTIALLY REMAINING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN REACHING STORM CONDITIONS TO WARRANT A
STORM WATCH. THE ONLY LOCATION WITH DECENT WIND PROBS FOR STORM
CONDITIONS WAS THE NC COASTAL WATERS WHERE 30-50% PROBS OF STORM-
FORCE GUSTS WERE NOTED AND THE VA/NC OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE 40-70%
PROBS WERE NOTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TREND FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE
OFFSHORE SOLUTION, WOULD PREFER TO SEE HOW THE 12Z MODELS TREND
TODAY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE COASTAL LOW
BEFORE MAKING ANY POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO STORM WATCHES/WARNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO MEANDER OFFSHORE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED GALE CONDITIONS (POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THU). IF THE LOW IS STRONGER AND TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
STORM CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM MON POTENTIALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW IS WEAKER AND/OR FARTHER
OFFSHORE, GALE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST WITH MAINLY SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHES BAY. IN ANY CASE, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
REGARDING THE SEAS, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT
NORTH AND 7-10 FT SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS EVENTUALLY
BUILD TO 10-15 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15-20 FT SEAS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY MON. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE
N/NE WINDS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-15 FT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VA BEACH
AND EASTERN CURRITUCK AND TONIGHT (4 AM SUN) ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
TUE, HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
CLIMATE
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET FRI 10/16:
- RIC: NO RECORD SET.
- ORF: 87 *TIES (2008).
- SBY: NO RECORD SET.
- ECG: 86 *TIES (2008)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ097>100-529>531.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ097-098-525-529>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>634-639-650-652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-639-652-654-
656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...LKB
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