372
FXUS61 KAKQ 171827
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF CURRITUCK
COUNTY. RAIN CHANCES TODAY LIKELY LINGER INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
VA FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY TO INCLUDE ALL LOCATIONS BORDERING THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COOLER WITH RAIN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS/BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
2) PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY.
3) THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A NOR'EASTER
LINGERING OFFSHORE OR RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
4) COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE ACROSS FAR SE VA. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER,
AND THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE FOR MONDAY'S HIGH
TIDES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MUCH COOLER WITH RAIN TODAY. GUSTY WINDS/BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A POTENT COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA (CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND). IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE
N-NW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 50S FOR N/NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE LOCAL AREA COMPLETELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT AN OVERRUNNING/ANAFRONTAL SETUP IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON
INLAND AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SE. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM THE NW BY
LATE MORNING, WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND ESPECIALLY VIRGINIA BEACH AND
CURRITUCK COUNTY, THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK STARTING AT NOON TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY.
ANY STEADY RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WITH CLEARING
CONTINUING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG, 1030+ MB,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER
AND CHILLY AIR TO FILTER INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE MID 30S (AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOWER 30S) IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER, SHELTERED RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, UPPER 30S
ALONG I-95, AND MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. WHILE SOME
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY
COOLER AND SHELTERED PIEDMONT LOCATIONS, A PERSISTENT 5 TO 10 MPH
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING. THEREFORE, NO
FROST HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT LOCALLY AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER/FALL-LIKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY,
WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS OUR FAR SE AREAS.
ANOTHER PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE FOR FAR NW PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY AM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
NOR'EASTER LINGERING OFFSHORE OR RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A NOR'EASTER LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS TO THE SHORELINE, THOUGH MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND 100-200 MILES OFF THE SOUTHERN VA OR NC
COAST. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED THE SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED TO THE 12Z SUITE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT CENTER POSITION, HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND COASTAL
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHEST (30-
50% POP) ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
INLAND. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S INLAND TO 50S AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE ACROSS FAR SE VA. A LONG DURATION COASTAL
FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER,
AND THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE FOR MONDAY'S HIGH
TIDES.
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO BUILD
FIRST OVER THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AS EARLY AS
THIS AFTERNOON. NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. AS SUCH, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS, ALLOWING FOR TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, WE ARE CURRENTLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE TIDE CYCLE. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW,
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IS FAVORED OVER MAJOR. ADDITIONALLY, SUNDAY'S
HIGH TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY NUISANCE TO MINOR. AS SUCH,
HAVE DELAYED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES UNTIL MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCHES TO INCLUDE THE ATLANTIC
SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING OCEAN CITY.
CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH NEARSHORE WAVES
BUILDING TO 8 TO 15 FEET. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF WIND SPEED ON TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MODERATE (POTENTIALLY MAJOR) TIDAL FLOODING
TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIDE FORECAST ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN WHAT
THE ACTUAL TIDE VALUES WILL BE. PETSS STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR MANY SITES SO USERS NEED TO PAY VERY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS INLAND TO BEGIN THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD, WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. CIGS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE LATEST.
WINDS FREQUENTLY GUST TO 30-35 KT AT ORF/ECG, AND 20-30 KT
ELSEWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INLAND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR FOR INLAND SITES THROUGH MONDAY.
CONTINUED BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 25-35 KT AS A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS AND
LINGERS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS START THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY BEYOND AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
AND DEEPENS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR STORM WATCHES
AT THIS TIME.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-15 FT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE N 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MEANWHILE, SEAS WERE 3-5 FT. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM. THE
STRONGER CAA REACHES THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 7-10 AM
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH N WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 KT. THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AS
A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS. HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCHES TO GALE
WARNINGS ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED
FARTHER OFFSHORE WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN GALE
CONDITIONS ON SUN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. HAVE BLENDED NBM AND
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN LOWER WINDS SUN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL HIGHER
THAN THE HRRR AND NAM (FOR SUN) AND MAY BE TOO HIGH. IN ANY CASE,
HAVE GALE WARNINGS ENDING AT 7 AM SUN FOR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
UPPER RIVERS AND 1 PM SUN FOR THE MD NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW GRADUALLY TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MON. AS SUCH, STILL THINK WINDS RAMP UP AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CLOSER LOCATION OF THE LOW
ON MON. THEREFORE, EXPECT NE-N WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON INTO MON NIGHT.
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A RETURN TO GALE CONDITIONS (AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION BREAK BETWEEN GALE CONDITIONS ON
SUN) ACROSS THE MD COASTAL WATERS, HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM 7
AM MON THROUGH 7 AM TUE. ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS,
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM TUE. HOWEVER, THESE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE 00Z
TREND OF THE LOW POTENTIALLY REMAINING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN REACHING STORM CONDITIONS TO WARRANT A
STORM WATCH. THE ONLY LOCATION WITH DECENT WIND PROBS FOR STORM
CONDITIONS WAS THE NC COASTAL WATERS WHERE 30-50% PROBS OF STORM-
FORCE GUSTS WERE NOTED AND THE VA/NC OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE 40-70%
PROBS WERE NOTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TREND FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE
OFFSHORE SOLUTION, WOULD PREFER TO SEE HOW THE 12Z MODELS TREND
TODAY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE COASTAL LOW
BEFORE MAKING ANY POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO STORM WATCHES/WARNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO MEANDER OFFSHORE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED GALE CONDITIONS (POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THU). IF THE LOW IS STRONGER AND TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
STORM CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM MON POTENTIALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW IS WEAKER AND/OR FARTHER
OFFSHORE, GALE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST WITH MAINLY SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHES BAY. IN ANY CASE, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
REGARDING THE SEAS, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT
NORTH AND 7-10 FT SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS EVENTUALLY
BUILD TO 10-15 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15-20 FT SEAS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY MON. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE
N/NE WINDS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-15 FT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VA BEACH
AND EASTERN CURRITUCK AND TONIGHT (4 AM SUN) ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
TUE, HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ097>100-529>531.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ097-
098-525-529>531.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-639-652-654-
656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...RMM
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