021
FXUS61 KAKQ 171848
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING, MINIMIZING PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN SHELTERED, RURAL
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
2) BREEZY N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK COUNTY, NC INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS OF
MODEL SPREAD, A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE, WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY'S HIGH
TIDES ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN SHELTERED, RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT HAS ALLOWED MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
GUSTY N WINDS. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY
HAS BEGUN CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA TO DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH CLEARING WILL TAKE
LONGER ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS INTO NE NC, WHERE LIGHT RAIN
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST OF I-95 WILL
ALLOW FOR LATE-DAY SUN AND MODEST WARMING BEFORE SUNSET, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING,
THEN CLOSES OFF OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS STRONG 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONTINUED COOL/DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN INLAND CLEARING, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
REACHING THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
INLAND. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (WINDS LINGERING 5-10 MPH)
SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT,
THEREFORE MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST, EVEN ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY FALL DAY IS
AHEAD FOR TOMORROW. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES JUST NNW OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FROST ARISES ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT, FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK COUNTY, NC INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS DEVELOPING LOW AND THE 1030+ MB HIGH TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ALONG THE COAST, NE WINDS OF 25 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
HIGHEST FROM VIRGINIA BEACH SOUTH TO THE NC NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THAT THE COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER WILL DEEPEN FURTHER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA/LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND PROLONGED WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. N-NE GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH INLAND AND
30 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, HIGHEST OVER THE VIRGINIA CAPES
SOUTH TO THE NC NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL SPREAD, A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT
IS EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES IN
EFFECT FOR MONDAY'S HIGH TIDES ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS SPREAD REGARDING CYCLONE INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT, PARTICULARLY BEYOND TUESDAY. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY JET STREAM AND LACKING AN UPSTREAM
KICKER TROUGH, PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SYSTEM MEANDERING
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GALE-FORCE N-NE WINDS WILL DRIVE
BUILDING TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, INITIALLY
GENERATING MINOR FLOODING IN THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER
WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE ANOMALIES TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP TO
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON MONDAY. IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS
FURTHER OR EDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST, LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND "LOWER" TOWARD HIGH-END MINOR TO MODERATE THRESHOLDS.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ATLANTIC
SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE, INCLUDING OCEAN CITY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS INLAND TO BEGIN THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD, WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. CIGS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE LATEST.
WINDS FREQUENTLY GUST TO 30-35 KT AT ORF/ECG, AND 20-30 KT
ELSEWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INLAND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR FOR INLAND SITES THROUGH MONDAY.
CONTINUED BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 25-35 KT AS A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS AND
LINGERS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD GALE CONDITIONS START THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY BEYOND AS COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
AND DEEPENS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR STORM WATCHES
AT THIS TIME.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-15 FT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WERE N 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
MEANWHILE, SEAS WERE 3-5 FT. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM. THE
STRONGER CAA REACHES THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 7-10 AM
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH N WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 KT. THIS SURGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AS
A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS. HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCHES TO GALE
WARNINGS ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED
FARTHER OFFSHORE WHICH HAS RESULTED IN DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN GALE
CONDITIONS ON SUN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. HAVE BLENDED NBM AND
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN LOWER WINDS SUN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL HIGHER
THAN THE HRRR AND NAM (FOR SUN) AND MAY BE TOO HIGH. IN ANY CASE,
HAVE GALE WARNINGS ENDING AT 7 AM SUN FOR THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
UPPER RIVERS AND 1 PM SUN FOR THE MD NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW GRADUALLY TRACKING
CLOSER TO THE COAST ON MON. AS SUCH, STILL THINK WINDS RAMP UP AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CLOSER LOCATION OF THE LOW
ON MON. THEREFORE, EXPECT NE-N WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MON INTO MON NIGHT.
GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A RETURN TO GALE CONDITIONS (AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG DURATION BREAK BETWEEN GALE CONDITIONS ON
SUN) ACROSS THE MD COASTAL WATERS, HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM 7
AM MON THROUGH 7 AM TUE. ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS,
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM TUE. HOWEVER, THESE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE 00Z
TREND OF THE LOW POTENTIALLY REMAINING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN REACHING STORM CONDITIONS TO WARRANT A
STORM WATCH. THE ONLY LOCATION WITH DECENT WIND PROBS FOR STORM
CONDITIONS WAS THE NC COASTAL WATERS WHERE 30-50% PROBS OF STORM-
FORCE GUSTS WERE NOTED AND THE VA/NC OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE 40-70%
PROBS WERE NOTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TREND FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE
OFFSHORE SOLUTION, WOULD PREFER TO SEE HOW THE 12Z MODELS TREND
TODAY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE COASTAL LOW
BEFORE MAKING ANY POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO STORM WATCHES/WARNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO MEANDER OFFSHORE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED GALE CONDITIONS (POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THU). IF THE LOW IS STRONGER AND TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
STORM CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FROM MON POTENTIALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW IS WEAKER AND/OR FARTHER
OFFSHORE, GALE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST WITH MAINLY SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHES BAY. IN ANY CASE, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
REGARDING THE SEAS, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT
NORTH AND 7-10 FT SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS EVENTUALLY
BUILD TO 10-15 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15-20 FT SEAS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY MON. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE
N/NE WINDS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-15 FT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VA BEACH
AND EASTERN CURRITUCK AND TONIGHT (4 AM SUN) ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
TUE, HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ097>100-529>531.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ097-
098-525-529>531.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-639-652-654-
656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...RMM
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