360
FXUS61 KAKQ 171934
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
334 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING, MINIMIZING PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY FROST
IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH
COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT IN SHELTERED, RURAL
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
2) BREEZY N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK COUNTY, NC INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS OF
MODEL SPREAD, A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE, WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY'S HIGH
TIDES ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MUCH COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN SHELTERED, RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT HAS ALLOWED MUCH COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON
GUSTY N WINDS. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY
HAS BEGUN CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA TO DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH CLEARING WILL TAKE
LONGER ACROSS SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS INTO NE NC, WHERE LIGHT RAIN
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST OF I-95 WILL
ALLOW FOR LATE-DAY SUN AND MODEST WARMING BEFORE SUNSET, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST THIS EVENING,
THEN CLOSES OFF OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS STRONG 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONTINUED COOL/DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN INLAND CLEARING, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
REACHING THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
INLAND. A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (WINDS LINGERING 5-10 MPH)
SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT,
THEREFORE MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST, EVEN ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY FALL DAY IS
AHEAD FOR TOMORROW. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES JUST NNW OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FROST ARISES ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT, FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK COUNTY, NC INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT NEAR
CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS DEVELOPING LOW AND THE 1030+ MB HIGH TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ALONG THE COAST, NE WINDS OF 25 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
HIGHEST FROM VIRGINIA BEACH SOUTH TO THE NC NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS.
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THAT THE COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER WILL DEEPEN FURTHER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA/LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND PROLONGED WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. N-NE GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH INLAND AND
30 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, HIGHEST OVER THE VIRGINIA CAPES
SOUTH TO THE NC NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL SPREAD, A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT
IS EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES IN
EFFECT FOR MONDAY'S HIGH TIDES ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS SPREAD REGARDING CYCLONE INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT, PARTICULARLY BEYOND TUESDAY. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY JET STREAM AND LACKING AN UPSTREAM
KICKER TROUGH, PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SYSTEM MEANDERING
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GALE-FORCE N-NE WINDS WILL DRIVE
BUILDING TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, INITIALLY
GENERATING MINOR FLOODING IN THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER
WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE ANOMALIES TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP TO
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON MONDAY. IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS
FURTHER OR EDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST, LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND "LOWER" TOWARD HIGH-END MINOR TO MODERATE THRESHOLDS.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ATLANTIC
SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE, INCLUDING OCEAN CITY.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT SATURDAY...
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS INLAND TO BEGIN THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD, WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST. CIGS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH ALL LOCATIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE LATEST.
WINDS FREQUENTLY GUST TO 30-35 KT AT ORF/ECG, AND 20-30 KT
ELSEWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INLAND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR FOR INLAND SITES THROUGH MONDAY.
CONTINUED BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. WINDS
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 25-35 KT AS A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS AND
LINGERS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND AS THE NOR-EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE.
- BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT.
- DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW STAYING
FURTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS. STILL A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MID WEEK
AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RANGES FROM THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH
AND EAST TO THE LOW SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST LEADING TO A
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WATERS.
WIDESPREAD NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY STARTING TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LULL OF WINDS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SUB GALE FORCE GUSTS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
CHARLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER, WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GUSTS TO 35 KT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONE WHERE GUSTS WILL BE FORECAST AT 30 KT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
NOW TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE, HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
WITH WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND SLOWLY
MOVES NORTH. THE FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE NBM WIND. THE OFFSHORE AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE 34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS, BUT
CERTAINLY WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STILL A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DIVERSE SET OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVENTUAL
LOW PRESSURE TRACK. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS
LOW PRESSURE ANYWHERE FROM JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO AS FAR AS
500 MILES OFFSHORE. THIS LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS, GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL WED MORNING.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY, EXPECT
SEAS TO BUILD TO 12 TO 18 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAIN IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ097>100-529>531.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ097-
098-525-529>531.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-639-652-
654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...MRD
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