568
FXUS61 KAKQ 180121
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
921 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TAPERS OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST.
CLEAR AND COOL INLAND.
2) BREEZY N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
3) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS OF
MODEL SPREAD, A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY'S HIGH TIDES
ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 920 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....RAIN TAPERS OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG
THE COAST. CLEAR AND COOL INLAND.
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL CLOSE OFF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OBX
BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
AND BREEZY FALL DAY IS AHEAD FOR SUNDAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS, HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ARE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST NNW OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 30S PIEDMONT TO LOW 50S COAST, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 60S
ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND THE 1030+ MB HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ALONG
THE COAST, NE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, HIGHEST FROM VIRGINIA BEACH SOUTH TO
THE NC NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE THAT THE COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER WILL DEEPEN FURTHER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA/LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND PROLONGED WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. N-NE GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 MPH INLAND AND
30 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, HIGHEST OVER THE VIRGINIA CAPES
SOUTH TO THE NC NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL SPREAD, A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT
IS EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MONDAY'S HIGH TIDES ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS SPREAD REGARDING CYCLONE INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT, PARTICULARLY BEYOND TUESDAY. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY JET STREAM AND LACKING AN UPSTREAM
KICKER TROUGH, PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SYSTEM MEANDERING
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL DRIVE BUILDING
TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE ANOMALIES TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP TO
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON MONDAY. IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS
FURTHER OR EDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST, LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND "LOWER" TOWARD HIGH-END MINOR TO MODERATE THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 25-30 KT AT ORF/ECG THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND 20-25 KT AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS ON SUNDAY. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE LESS FOR KRIC/KSBY/KPHF OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 13Z.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. CONTINUED BREEZY
NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND AS THE NOR-EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE.
- BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT.
- DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW STAYING
FURTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS. STILL A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MID WEEK
AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RANGES FROM THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH
AND EAST TO THE LOW SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST LEADING TO A
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WATERS.
WIDESPREAD NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA.
THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY STARTING TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LULL OF WINDS ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
DEVELOPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SUB GALE FORCE GUSTS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
CHARLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER, WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GUSTS TO 35 KT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONE WHERE GUSTS WILL BE FORECAST AT 30 KT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
NOW TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE, HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
WITH WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND SLOWLY
MOVES NORTH. THE FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE NBM WIND. THE OFFSHORE AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE 34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS, BUT
CERTAINLY WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STILL A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DIVERSE SET OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVENTUAL
LOW PRESSURE TRACK. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS
LOW PRESSURE ANYWHERE FROM JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO AS FAR AS
500 MILES OFFSHORE. THIS LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS, GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL WED MORNING.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY, EXPECT
SEAS TO BUILD TO 12 TO 18 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAIN IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ097>100-529>531.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-639-652-
654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...JDM/MAM
MARINE...MRD
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