702
FXUS61 KAKQ 180717
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY,
WIND ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR EASTERN CURRITUCK COUNTY AND THE
CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH.
UPDATED MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD DISCUSSIONS COMING SHORTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO MAINLY
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY.
2) BREEZY N TO NE WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
3) A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY HIGH
TIDES ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LEADING
TO MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL CLOSE OFF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OBX THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THE FA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA,
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FAR E/SE. DESPITE THE FULL
SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INLAND TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95, LOWER 40S AROUND METRO RICHMOND, AND UPPER
40S TO MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, FROST
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LIGHT BREEZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BREEZY N TO NE WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE BETWEEN THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND BERMUDA WHILE 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE, MAINLY THE 3K
NAM AND HRRR, CONTINUES TO SHOW OUTER RAIN BANDS AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW BACK TOWARD THE
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (~20 TO
50%) ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR NE NC, HAMPTON ROADS, AND THE
EASTERN SHORE, WHILE CENTRAL VA AND THE PIEDMONT REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE LOW LINGERING OFFSHORE
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS
INLAND AND PROLONGED WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. N-NE GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH INLAND AND
30 TO 45+ MPH ALONG THE COAST, HIGHEST OVER THE VIRGINIA CAPES
SOUTH TO THE NC NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN CURRITUCK COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH ON MONDAY. ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS INDICATES
THE LOW WILL BEGIN A SLOW EAST- NORTHEAST DRIFT FURTHER OUT TO
SEA BY MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS
EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY'S
HIGH TIDES ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER,
AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS SPREAD REGARDING CYCLONE INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT, PARTICULARLY BEYOND TUESDAY. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY JET STREAM AND LACKING AN UPSTREAM
KICKER TROUGH, PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SYSTEM MEANDERING
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL DRIVE BUILDING
TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE ANOMALIES TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP TO
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON MONDAY. IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS
FURTHER OR EDGES CLOSER TO THE COAST, LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND "LOWER" TOWARD HIGH-END MINOR TO MODERATE THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST 25-30 KT AT ORF/ECG THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND 20-25 KT AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AT THE SE
TERMINALS WITH MAINLY SKC AT RIC AND SBY.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE SE TERMINALS (ECG, PHF,
ORF) ON MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE. IN
ADDITION, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 950 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, HIGHEST
FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM VA CAPES TO NE NC, AS NOR'EASTER
MEANDERS OFFSHORE.
- BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT.
- DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW STAYING
FURTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS. STILL A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR MID WEEK
AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RANGES FROM THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH
AND EAST TO THE LOW SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING TO THE WEST LEADING TO A
STRONGER WINDS IN THE WATERS.
WIDESPREAD NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN, WITH WINDS MORE MARGINAL ACROSS
THE BAY N OF NEW PT COMFORT AND THE LOWER JAMES, AND ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS, WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
INTO SUNDAY. HAVE THEREFORE REPLACED THE GALES WITH SCAS FOR
THE UPPER RIVERS FOR NOW.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LULL OF WINDS ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND THE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO SUB GALE FORCE GUSTS
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE CHARLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST GUSTS TO 35 KT EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONE
WHERE GUSTS WILL BE FORECAST AT 30 KT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
NOW TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE, HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
WITH WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND SLOWLY
MOVES NORTH. THE FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE AND ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE NBM WIND. THE OFFSHORE AREA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE 34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS, BUT
CERTAINLY WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.
STILL A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A DIVERSE SET OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVENTUAL
LOW PRESSURE TRACK. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS
LOW PRESSURE ANYWHERE FROM JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS TO AS FAR AS
500 MILES OFFSHORE. THIS LEADS TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
LOW PRESSURE TRACK. REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS, GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL WED MORNING.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MONDAY, EXPECT
SEAS TO BUILD TO 12 TO 18 FEET IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAIN IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ097>100-529>531.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-639-652-
654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/JDM
MARINE...LKB/MRD
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