689
FXUS61 KAKQ 181926
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE LOWERED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY, NOW MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE MONDAY FOR MOST. BREEZY NNE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
2) A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE MONDAY FOR MOST. BREEZY NNE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG ~1038MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA, DESPITE AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE
VA/NE NC, FROM LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT, LOWER 40S
INLAND, AND LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING,
FROST FORMATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LIGHT BREEZE.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BECOME CLOSED OFF THIS AFTERNOON,
DEVELOPING A NOR'EASTER THAT WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE. THE HI-RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS SHOWING THE LOW STRENGTHENING, BUT STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY REACH COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT
POPS HAVE DECREASED AS THE TRACK HAS MOVED FURTHER AWAY. THERE IS
NOW ONLY 15-30% POP ALONG SE VA/NE NC ON MONDAY. WITH THE LOW
LINGERING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND PROLONGED WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. N-NE GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH INLAND AND
30 TO 45+ MPH ALONG THE COAST, HIGHEST OVER THE VIRGINIA CAPES SOUTH
TO THE NC NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN CURRITUCK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THIS IS WHERE GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE LOW LINGERS OFFSHORE AND THE
POTENTIAL TRACK, BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST-NORTHEAST FURTHER OUT TO SEA BY MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS
EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SPREAD REGARDING A NOR'EASTER
LINGERING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY
AND PLACEMENT, PARTICULARLY BEYOND TUESDAY. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY JET STREAM AND LACKING AN UPSTREAM
KICKER TROUGH, PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SYSTEM MEANDERING
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL DRIVE BUILDING
TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE ANOMALIES TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP TO
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS OR EDGES CLOSER TO
THE COAST, LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND "LOWER" TOWARD HIGH-END MINOR
TO MODERATE THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS TIDAL LEVELS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO WED
WITH GRADUALLY HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS EACH DAY. FOR NOW, HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AS
WELL AS VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK. WHILE MORE
MARGINAL THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGH TIDE, NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE ACROSS THIS
REGION. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
HOWEVER, WITH SMITHFIELD AND FORT MONROE FAVORED TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AS WELL AS FACTORING IN THAT A FEW NON-FORECAST
SITES AROUND NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH ARE TRENDING HIGHER THAN
NEARBY TWL SITES AND WILL LIKELY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE, HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THAT WHOLE REGION FOR THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE, HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY
WED MORNING GIVEN THE GRADUALLY INCREASING TIDES.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/18 TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT FOR ORF/ECG AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE. SCT-
BKN CU HAS DEVELOPED OVER SE VA/NE NC, WITH ORF/ECG/PHF SEEING CIGS
AROUND 4000-5000 FT. CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FOR ALL TONIGHT, REMAINING VFR. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
NE, DROPPING TO ~5 KT FOR INLAND TERMINALS AND ~10 KT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE SE TERMINALS (ECG, PHF, ORF)
MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED BREEZY
NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 700 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A LONG DURATION GALE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, AS NOR'EASTER
MEANDERS OFFSHORE, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS THE OCEAN
ZONES FROM THE VA CAPES TO NE NC.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AS THE NOR'EASTER
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW FOR STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COASTAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WITH A STRONG (~1033 MB)
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN
STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH WINDS GENERALLY
25-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35- 40 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AS
SUCH GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS
WERE LIGHTER ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS WHERE SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS FOR MONDAY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WHEREAS THE HI-RES MODELS
(HRRR/RAP/ARW/FV3/NAM) KEEP THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
THEREFORE HAVE STRONGER WINDS. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXTREME OUTLIER,
SHOWING STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATER ZONES FROM
MON INTO AT LEAST EARLY WED. HOWEVER, THE OTHER CAMS (WHICH ONLY GO
OUT TO 00Z TUE) SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE VA/NC COASTAL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY THE NEARSHORE NC
COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL WITH THE WIND PROBS FOR 48 KT
GUSTS WHICH WERE AROUND 20-45% ACROSS THE NEARSHORE NC COASTAL
WATERS AND AROUND 45-55% ACROSS THE VA/NC OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
THEREFORE, EITHER HIGH-END GALE OR LOW-END STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MON. A STORM WATCH FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS
CONSIDERED. HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY, THE MARGINAL WINDS,
GALE WARNINGS ALREADY IN EFFECT, AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND WITH THE
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER
WINDS, AN UPGRADE TO EITHER A STORM WARNING OR STORM WATCH IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS.
BEYOND MON, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW LONG GALE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. MOST MODELS KEEP THE LOW LINGERING OFFSHORE THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK WHEREAS THE EURO IS THE QUICKEST TO MOVE THE LOW
FARTHER OFFSHORE. IN ANY CASE, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO MID-LATE WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE GALE WARNINGS CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS, LOWER CHES BAY, AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE UPDATES. THE NEARSHORE MD COASTAL
WATERS HAVE SCAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MON WHEN GALE WARNINGS GO
INTO EFFECT. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER TODAY. FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, GALE
WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT AT 1 AM MON. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS
THE MIDDLE CHES BAY FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF GALES. AS SUCH, HAVE
GALE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES STARTING AT 4 AM MON. IN
THE UPPER RIVERS, CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN SCA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE NIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
MON. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE N/NE WINDS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF
8-14 FT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. AS SUCH, HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM WED, HOWEVER,
THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR VAZ097-528>531.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR VAZ524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-652-654-
656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ639-650.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ639-
650.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...RMM
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