318
FXUS61 KAKQ 182340
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
740 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE LOWERED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY, NOW MAINLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE MONDAY FOR MOST. BREEZY NNE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
2) A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND
THE ATLANTIC COAST.
3) A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE MONDAY FOR
MOST. BREEZY NNE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG ~1038MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA, DESPITE AN
ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SE
VA/NE NC, FROM LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT, LOWER 40S
INLAND, AND LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING,
FROST FORMATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A LIGHT BREEZE.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BECOME CLOSED OFF THIS AFTERNOON,
DEVELOPING A NOR'EASTER THAT WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE. THE HI-RES AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS SHOWING THE LOW STRENGTHENING, BUT STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS MAY REACH COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT
POPS HAVE DECREASED AS THE TRACK HAS MOVED FURTHER AWAY. THERE IS
NOW ONLY 15-30% POP ALONG SE VA/NE NC ON MONDAY. WITH THE LOW
LINGERING OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, PERSISTENT BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND PROLONGED WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. N-NE GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 MPH INLAND AND
30 TO 45+ MPH ALONG THE COAST, HIGHEST OVER THE VIRGINIA CAPES SOUTH
TO THE NC NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN CURRITUCK COUNTY AND THE CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THIS IS WHERE GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE LOW LINGERS OFFSHORE AND THE
POTENTIAL TRACK, BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST-NORTHEAST FURTHER OUT TO SEA BY MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS
EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SPREAD REGARDING A NOR'EASTER
LINGERING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH RESPECT TO INTENSITY
AND PLACEMENT, PARTICULARLY BEYOND TUESDAY. WITH THE CUTOFF LOW
DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY JET STREAM AND LACKING AN UPSTREAM
KICKER TROUGH, PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SYSTEM MEANDERING
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL DRIVE BUILDING
TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL DRIVE ANOMALIES TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP TO
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS OR EDGES CLOSER TO
THE COAST, LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND "LOWER" TOWARD HIGH-END MINOR
TO MODERATE THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS TIDAL LEVELS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO WED
WITH GRADUALLY HIGHER TIDAL LEVELS EACH DAY. FOR NOW, HAVE
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AS
WELL AS VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK. WHILE MORE
MARGINAL THAN YESTERDAY'S HIGH TIDE, NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE ACROSS THIS
REGION. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
HOWEVER, WITH SMITHFIELD AND FORT MONROE FAVORED TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AS WELL AS FACTORING IN THAT A FEW NON-FORECAST
SITES AROUND NORFOLK AND VIRGINIA BEACH ARE TRENDING HIGHER THAN
NEARBY TWL SITES AND WILL LIKELY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE, HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED THAT WHOLE REGION FOR THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE, HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY
WED MORNING GIVEN THE GRADUALLY INCREASING TIDES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD REGARDING THE
INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER LINGERING
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY BEYOND TUESDAY. WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY JET STREAM AND LACKING A
STRONG UPSTREAM KICKER TROUGH, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS A SYSTEM
THAT MEANDERS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE SLOWLY INCREASING POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS OR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH MOST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD LOWER WATER LEVELS, GENERALLY
SUPPORTING HIGH-END MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.
TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. FOR NOW, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AS WELL AS FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK.
NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING'S HIGH TIDE, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MORE
MARGINAL THAN WITH THE PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BEYOND MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK IN THE LOWER BAY, TIDAL JAMES RIVER
AND ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER, SMITHFIELD AND JAMESTOWN ARE FAVORED TO REACH MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY LATER TUE AND WED. THEREFORE,
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS, INCLUDING SEWELLS POINT.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE BUT WERE PUSHED FARTHER OUT IN
TIME TO BEGIN LATE MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE GRADUALLY INCREASING TIDAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 00Z/19 TAF PERIOD. WINDS
DIMINISH INLAND OVERNIGHT TO <10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN
THE COAST. NNE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT 15-20KT AT THE SE
TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY AT ORF
WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MAINLY MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED, BUT CIGS NEAR MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
AT ORF/ECG TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 700 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, AS
NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES FROM THE VA CAPES TO NE NC.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034+ MB NORTHWEST OF THE
WATERS, WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS
SHOW NNE WINDS OF 20-25 KT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND 25-35 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
AVERAGE 6-10 FT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 10-14 FT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE.
LATEST PROBABILISTIC AND A MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE, WITH THE LOW MEANDERING
OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THE NAM REMAINS A STRONG,
WESTWARD OUTLIER, WHILE CAM GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ACCORDINGLY,
WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT FOR BOTH STORM AND
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE BAY AND LOWER RIVERS. GALE FORCE
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 60-80% OVER THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS AND GREATER THAN 80% OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MEANWHILE, STORM FORCE PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20%,
EVEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. ALTHOUGH GALE
PROBABILITIES HAVE DECREASED WEST OF LITTLE CREEK, INCLUDING
OVER THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, THE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
NOW, WITH ITS START TIME DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
BEYOND MONDAY, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE DURATION OF
GALE CONDITIONS. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LOW
REMAINING FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK BEFORE
DEPARTING BY LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT TO GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK.
FOR NOW, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THE UPPER BAY AND VIRGINIA RIVERS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND WILL BEGIN OVER THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NEARSHORE MARYLAND COASTAL WATERS
GO INTO EFFECT MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE UPPER RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS AND 14-18 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
MON. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE PROLONGED N/NE WINDS, LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR THAT
REASON, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR VAZ097-528>531.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR VAZ524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-652-654-
656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ639-650.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ639-
650.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MAM/RMM
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