522
FXUS61 KAKQ 190608
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FROST
TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE MONDAY FOR MOST. BREEZY NNE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIALLY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
2) A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE MONDAY FOR
MOST. BREEZY NNE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG ~1035MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW WAS NOTED WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN HOW
FAR OFFSHORE THE LOW WAS LOCATED, CLOUDS WERE ONLY NOTED ACROSS
EXTREME SE VA/NE NC WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN HAVING THE DOMINANT EFFECT ON WINDS
INLAND WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING CALM CONDITIONS WEST OF
I-95. AS SUCH, TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL QUICKER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS AS OF 130 AM RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC (WHERE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED). GIVEN THE TRENDS, HAVE LOWERED
LOW TEMPS FOR THIS MORNING AND NOW HAVE MID 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F ALONG I-95 (UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN NECK AND INTERIOR SE VA), AND LOW-MID 50S ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC (WHERE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED). A FEW SHELTERED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
(POTENTIALLY NEAR 32-33F) WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN LOUISA. AS
SUCH, AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE PIEDMONT. IF IT WAS NOT 2 AM, A
FROST ADVISORY LIKELY WOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT FROST ADVISORIES ARE GENERALLY DESIGNED TO BE USED FOR
PREPARATION OF SENSITIVE PLANTS BEFORE A FROST OCCURS AND MOST
PEOPLE ARE LIKELY ASLEEP AT THIS HOUR, IT'S TOO LATE TO BE OF
HELP FOR MOST PEOPLE. NEVERTHELESS, DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FROST WHEN WAKING UP IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE PIEDMONT.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NOR'EASTER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, TODAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE FALL
DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND AND CLOUDS MAINLY CONFINED TO
ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, POPS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER REACHING FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST (LOCALLY UPPER 60S). NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH INLAND, 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE
EASTERN SHORE, AND 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH ALONG
THE COAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK COUNTY. GIVEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK,
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS INTO
TONIGHT.
THE NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING
NE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH WED WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
(HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST) AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F TUE AND LOW-MID 60S WED WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S INLAND AND 50S NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS
REMAIN COOL EVEN THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS
EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SPREAD REGARDING THE
INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER LINGERING
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY BEYOND TUESDAY. WITH THE
CUTOFF LOW DETACHED FROM THE PRIMARY JET STREAM AND LACKING A
STRONG UPSTREAM KICKER TROUGH, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS A SYSTEM
THAT MEANDERS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL
DRIVE SLOWLY INCREASING POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS OR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH MOST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD LOWER WATER LEVELS, GENERALLY
SUPPORTING HIGH-END MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING.
TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. FOR NOW, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AS WELL AS FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK.
NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING'S HIGH TIDE, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD BE MORE
MARGINAL THAN WITH THE PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BEYOND MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK IN THE LOWER BAY, TIDAL JAMES RIVER
AND ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
HOWEVER, SMITHFIELD AND JAMESTOWN ARE FAVORED TO REACH MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY LATER TUE AND WED. THEREFORE,
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS, INCLUDING SEWELLS POINT.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE BUT WERE PUSHED FARTHER OUT IN
TIME TO BEGIN LATE MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE GRADUALLY INCREASING TIDAL LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EDT MONDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND AND LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS MAY TRY TO PUSH INLAND A BIT TODAY AND
MAY REACH SBY/PHF, HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF CLOUD
COVER IS ECG AND ORF. ADDITIONALLY, MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC AND OFFSHORE (2500-3000FT CIGS). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS IS AT ECG WITH ORF RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
LOWER CIGS. AS SUCH, HAVE MVFR CIGS AT ECG BUT NOT ORF FOR NOW.
CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS INLAND REMAIN LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING (<10KT) GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. NNE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT 15-20KT AT THE SE
TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY AT ORF
AND ECG WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. N/NNE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT ELSEWHERE LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 700 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, AS
NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES FROM THE VA CAPES TO NE NC.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034+ MB NORTHWEST OF THE
WATERS, WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS
SHOW NNE WINDS OF 20-25 KT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND 25-35 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
AVERAGE 6-10 FT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 10-14 FT
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE.
LATEST PROBABILISTIC AND A MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE, WITH THE LOW MEANDERING
OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THE NAM REMAINS A STRONG,
WESTWARD OUTLIER, WHILE CAM GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ACCORDINGLY,
WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT FOR BOTH STORM AND
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE BAY AND LOWER RIVERS. GALE FORCE
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 60-80% OVER THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS AND GREATER THAN 80% OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
MEANWHILE, STORM FORCE PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20%,
EVEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. ALTHOUGH GALE
PROBABILITIES HAVE DECREASED WEST OF LITTLE CREEK, INCLUDING
OVER THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, THE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
NOW, WITH ITS START TIME DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
BEYOND MONDAY, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE DURATION OF
GALE CONDITIONS. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE LOW
REMAINING FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK BEFORE
DEPARTING BY LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT TO GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK.
FOR NOW, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER THE UPPER BAY AND VIRGINIA RIVERS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND WILL BEGIN OVER THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NEARSHORE MARYLAND COASTAL WATERS
GO INTO EFFECT MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE UPPER RIVERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS AND 14-18 FT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
MON. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE PROLONGED N/NE WINDS, LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR THAT
REASON, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR VAZ097-528>531.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-652-654-
656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ639-650.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ639-650.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...LKB/MAM/RMM
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