946
FXUS61 KAKQ 190821
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
421 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING AND ADDED PATCHY FROST
TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE WEEK FOR MOST. BREEZY NNE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
2) A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 420 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE WEEK FOR MOST.
BREEZY NNE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG ~1035MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. MEANWHILE A COASTAL LOW WAS NOTED WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN HOW
FAR OFFSHORE THE LOW WAS LOCATED, CLOUDS WERE ONLY NOTED ACROSS
EXTREME SE VA/NE NC WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN HAVING THE DOMINANT EFFECT ON WINDS
INLAND WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING CALM CONDITIONS WEST OF
I-95. AS SUCH, TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL QUICKER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH TEMPS AS OF 130 AM RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 50S ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC (WHERE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED). GIVEN THE TRENDS, HAVE LOWERED
LOW TEMPS FOR THIS MORNING AND NOW HAVE MID 30S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F ALONG I-95 (UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN NECK AND INTERIOR SE VA), AND LOW-MID 50S ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC (WHERE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED). A FEW SHELTERED
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
(POTENTIALLY NEAR 32-33F) WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN LOUISA. AS
SUCH, AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF FROST
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE PIEDMONT. IF IT WAS NOT 2 AM, A
FROST ADVISORY LIKELY WOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT FROST ADVISORIES ARE GENERALLY DESIGNED TO BE USED FOR
PREPARATION OF SENSITIVE PLANTS BEFORE A FROST OCCURS AND MOST
PEOPLE ARE LIKELY ASLEEP AT THIS HOUR, IT'S TOO LATE TO BE OF
HELP FOR MOST PEOPLE. NEVERTHELESS, DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FROST WHEN WAKING UP IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE PIEDMONT.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NOR'EASTER WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, TODAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE FALL
DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND AND CLOUDS MAINLY CONFINED TO
ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, POPS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER REACHING FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NE NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S FOR MOST (LOCALLY UPPER 60S). NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH INLAND, 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE
EASTERN SHORE, AND 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH ALONG
THE COAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK COUNTY. GIVEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK,
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS INTO
TONIGHT.
THE NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE MOVING
NE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH WED WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
(HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST) AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F TUE AND LOW-MID 60S WED WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S INLAND AND 50S NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS
REMAIN COOL EVEN THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A LONG-DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK.
TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. FOR NOW, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AS WELL AS FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND EASTERN CURRITUCK.
NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD MORE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK IN THE LOWER BAY, TIDAL JAMES RIVER AND ON THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER, SMITHFIELD
AND JAMESTOWN ARE FAVORED TO REACH MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE BY LATER TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THEREFORE,
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS, INCLUDING SEWELLS POINT. COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES CONTINUE BUT WERE PUSHED FARTHER OUT IN TIME TO BEGIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
GRADUALLY INCREASING TIDAL LEVELS. IN ADDITION, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR THE MID-UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO
AT LEAST A SIGNAL THAT BISHOP'S HEAD MAY APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EDT MONDAY...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND AND LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING
ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS MAY TRY TO PUSH INLAND A BIT TODAY AND
MAY REACH SBY/PHF, HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF CLOUD
COVER IS ECG AND ORF. ADDITIONALLY, MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC AND OFFSHORE (2500-3000FT CIGS). THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS IS AT ECG WITH ORF RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE
LOWER CIGS. AS SUCH, HAVE MVFR CIGS AT ECG BUT NOT ORF FOR NOW.
CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS INLAND REMAIN LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING (<10KT) GIVEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. NNE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT 15-20KT AT THE SE
TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE, ESPECIALLY AT ORF
AND ECG WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY. N/NNE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KT ELSEWHERE LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, AS A
NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES FROM THE VA CAPES TO NE NC.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 14 FEET.
EARLY THIS MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OF ~1035 MB CENTERED
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS, WHILE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NNE WINDS OF ~20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 25 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE AVERAGING ~7 TO 10 FEET OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS AND ~9 TO 12+ FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
LATEST PROBABILISTIC AND MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW/NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE, WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OFFSHORE
THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ACCORDINGLY,
WIND PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR BOTH STORM GUSTS (OCEAN)
AND GALE FORCE GUSTS (BAY AND LOWER RIVERS). GALE FORCE
PROBABILITIES AVERAGE TO 70-90% OVER THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AND GREATER THAN 90% OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE, STORM
FORCE PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO 10% OR LESS, EVEN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. WITH GALE PROBABILITIES
DECREASING WEST OF LITTLE CREEK, INCLUDING OVER THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER, THE START TIME HAS BEEN DELAYED FURTHER UNTIL TONIGHT TO
CAPTURE THE EXPECTED STRONGER NNE SURGE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, GALE WATCHES IN THE MIDDLE BAY WERE CONVERTED TO GALE
WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE UPPER RIVERS WERE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES WERE
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL
EXTENSIONS AND ADJUSTMENTS WITH FUTURE UPDATES. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT TO GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS AND 14 TO 18+ FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE PROLONGED N/NE WINDS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES
OF 8 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR THAT REASON, HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR VAZ097-528>531.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-652-654-656-
658.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ650.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ680-682-684-686-
688.
DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
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