634
FXUS61 KAKQ 191937
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
337 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS LOWERED SOME THROUGH MIDWEEK. WIND ADVISORIES CANCELLED
FOR VA BEACH AND OBX CURRITUCK.
WATER LEVELS AND TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER
THIS WEEK, HOWEVER, MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING IS STILL
EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
BETWEEN SMITH POINT AND NEW POINT COMFORT (THAT WAS IN EFFECT
FROM THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW) HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE WEEK FOR MOST. BREEZY NNE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
2) WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE THIS WEEK. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE WEEK FOR MOST.
BREEZY NNE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE NC OBX. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK
EXTENDS W OF THE CENTER, CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING COASTAL
LOCATIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY SO AT THE COAST. OVERALL, WIND
SPEEDS TODAY HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AND THE
WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND COASTAL
CURRITUCK COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AND
30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AND AT THE COAST, RESPECTIVELY,
THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE WIND, THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
REMARKABLY UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MOST OF
US SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH LOW AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY VALUES. SHOULD NOTE THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF A
ROGUE SHOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VA AND NC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW POTENTIALLY RETROGRADES
WESTWARD A BIT, BUT THIS WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LOW.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE SPECIFICS, HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION COOLS FRIDAY OFF A BIT, BUT NOT
EXCESSIVELY SO. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST RANGES FROM AROUND
60 F ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MAINLAND VA AND
NC. THE DRY AND SEASONABLE WX SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH THE LEFTOVERS OF THE NOR'EASTER/COASTAL SYSTEM WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE AND
SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 40S INLAND AND 50S NEAR THE COAST. IT COULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE RURAL LOCATIONS WELL INLAND, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN'T RULE
IT OUT TONIGHT AS WELL, THOUGH MOST OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS ABOVE 40 F.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE THIS WEEK. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. ALL COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, WITH AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER,
SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY, VIRGINIA BEACH, AND EASTERN CURRITUCK (IN
PREVIOUS COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY) NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE AND AREAS ON THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE IN EFFECT WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE.
TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE TIDAL ANOMALIES CURRENTLY
ARE NOT TRENDING AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NUISANCE TO MARGINAL MINOR FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY'S
HIGH TIDES ALONG AREAS IN THE PREVIOUS COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. WITH
THE LOWER ANOMALIES AND LOWER NNE WIND GUSTS, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL NEED EXTENDED IN TIME TO CAPTURE THURSDAY'S
HIGH TIDES. IN ADDITION, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEED FOR THE MID-UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST A SIGNAL THAT BISHOP'S
HEAD MAY APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
A LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THIS WEEK
FOR ANY LOCALIZED MODERATE STAGE FLOODING, DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT MONDAY...
A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF VA, NC, AND
MD. HOWEVER, CIGS ARE VFR AT ORF, PHF, AND ECG. SKC IS OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE. RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. THOSE LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE
RETREATING SOME TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS OFFSHORE AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST TODAY. FURTHER INLAND, GUSTS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 20-25 KT.
WINDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, AS A
NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES FROM THE VA CAPES TO NE NC.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 14 FEET.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A COASTAL LOW WELL OFF THE CAROLINA WATERS.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NNE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE AVERAGING ~7 TO 10 FEET OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ~9 TO 12+ FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
LATEST PROBABILISTIC AND MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAIN
A GENERALLY CONVERGED SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW/NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE, WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OFFSHORE
THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THE 12Z HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD IN WIND SPEEDS. ACCORDINGLY, WIND PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR BOTH STORM GUSTS (OCEAN) AND GALE FORCE
GUSTS (BAY AND LOWER RIVERS). GALE FORCE PROBS FOR THE CHES. BAY HAS
DECREASED TO AROUND 20-30% (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN CHES. BAY) FOR
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE PROBABILITIES AVERAGE TO 70-90% OVER THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND GREATER THAN 90% OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. MEANWHILE, STORM FORCE PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR
0%, EVEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER CHES. BAY. WITH DECREASING GALE PROBS AND MODEL AGREEMENT,
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AND CHES.
BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
GALE WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE CHES. BAY ZONE
(ANZ631) THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING, AS A STRONGER
NNE SURGE INCREASES WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
GALE WARNING FOR THE LOWER CHES. BAY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEED
ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS AND CONVERSIONS TO SCAS WITH FUTURE UPDATES. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT TO GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS AND 14 TO 18+ FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE PROLONGED N/NE WINDS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES
OF 8 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR THAT REASON, HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
VAZ082-089-090-097-098-524-525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ631.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-
656-658.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637-
639.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ680-682-684-686-
688.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/KMC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page