369
FXUS61 KAKQ 200135
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS, ADDED PATCHY
FROST WORDING TO THE FAR NW.
- WINDS LOWERED SOME THROUGH MIDWEEK. WIND ADVISORIES CANCELLED
FOR VA BEACH AND OBX CURRITUCK.
- WATER LEVELS AND TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER
THIS WEEK, HOWEVER, MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING IS
STILL EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES.
- THE GALE WARNING FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
BETWEEN SMITH POINT AND NEW POINT COMFORT (THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW) HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE WEEK FOR MOST. BREEZY NNE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COOL NIGHTS PREVAIL WELL INLAND WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.
2) WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE THIS WEEK. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 930 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY AND MOSTLY SUNNY FALL-LIKE WEEK FOR MOST.
BREEZY NNE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COOL NIGHTS PREVAIL WELL INLAND WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.
IR AND NIGHTTIME PHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE FAR SE HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING,
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AREA-WIDE. SPRAWLING LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE NC OBX. OUTSIDE
OF THE WIND ALONG THE COAST, THE WEATHER SHOULD BE REMARKABLY
UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MOST OF US SUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH LOW AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES.
SHOULD NOTE THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF A ROGUE SHOWER ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE VA AND NC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW POTENTIALLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD A BIT, BUT
THIS WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW.
REGARDING TEMPERATURE SPECIFICS, HAVE LOWERED TONIGHT'S (EARLY
AM TUESDAY) MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS,
GOING CLOSE TO THE MAV VALUES ALONG AND W OF I-95. IT WILL NOT
BE AS FAVORABLE AS LAST NIGHT WHEN ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE PIEDMONT, BUT EXPECT TO SEE LOWS INTO THE
UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT, WITH POCKETS OF MID
30S POSSIBLE. ADDED PATCHY FROST WORDING TO LOUISA/FLUVANNA,
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING WIDESPREAD SO DID NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE IN THE LOW-MID
40S, WITH 50S NEAR THE COAST WHERE MIXING CONTINUES WITH
ELEVATEDN-NE WINDS.
HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN
TODAY, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A PUSH OF COLD
ADVECTION COOLS FRIDAY OFF A BIT, BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO. THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST RANGES FROM AROUND 60 F ON THE
EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MAINLAND VA AND NC. THE
DRY AND SEASONABLE WX SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH THE LEFTOVERS OF THE NOR'EASTER/COASTAL SYSTEM WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE
AND SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 40S INLAND AND 50S NEAR THE COAST. IT
COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE RURAL LOCATIONS WELL
INLAND, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE THIS WEEK. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. ALL COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, WITH AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER,
SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY, VIRGINIA BEACH, AND EASTERN CURRITUCK (IN
PREVIOUS COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY) NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE AND AREAS ON THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE IN EFFECT WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE.
TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE TIDAL ANOMALIES CURRENTLY
ARE NOT TRENDING AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
NUISANCE TO MARGINAL MINOR FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY'S
HIGH TIDES ALONG AREAS IN THE PREVIOUS COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. WITH
THE LOWER ANOMALIES AND LOWER NNE WIND GUSTS, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL NEED EXTENDED IN TIME TO CAPTURE THURSDAY'S
HIGH TIDES. IN ADDITION, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEED FOR THE MID-UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST A SIGNAL THAT BISHOP'S
HEAD MAY APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
A LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THIS WEEK
FOR ANY LOCALIZED MODERATE STAGE FLOODING, DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 820 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING ORF/ECG HAS
PUSHED FARTHER TO THE SE, WITH MAINLY SKC NOW PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KT INLAND,
BUT STILL SEEING GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AT ORF AND OCCASIONALLY AT
ECG. RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN
12-14Z, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AT ORF/ECG,
AND UP TO 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE. WHILE SOME STRATOCUMULUS OFFSHORE MAY
SPREAD INLAND INTO THE SE COASTAL TERMINALS TUESDAY, OVERALL,
EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED THE PAST 2
DAYS, WITH MAINLY SKC INLAND AGAIN.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. CONTINUED
BREEZY NNE CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, AS A
NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES FROM THE VA CAPES TO NE NC.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 14 FEET.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH A COASTAL LOW WELL OFF THE CAROLINA WATERS.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NNE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, HIGHEST OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE AVERAGING ~7 TO 10 FEET OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND ~9 TO 12+ FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
LATEST PROBABILISTIC AND MOST DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAIN
A GENERALLY CONVERGED SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW/NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE, WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OFFSHORE
THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK. THE 12Z HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD IN WIND SPEEDS. ACCORDINGLY, WIND PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR BOTH STORM GUSTS (OCEAN) AND GALE FORCE
GUSTS (BAY AND LOWER RIVERS). GALE FORCE PROBS FOR THE CHES. BAY HAS
DECREASED TO AROUND 20-30% (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN CHES. BAY) FOR
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE PROBABILITIES AVERAGE TO 70-90% OVER THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND GREATER THAN 90% OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. MEANWHILE, STORM FORCE PROBABILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR
0%, EVEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER CHES. BAY. WITH DECREASING GALE PROBS AND MODEL AGREEMENT,
HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AND CHES.
BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT AND REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
GALE WARNINGS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE CHES. BAY ZONE
(ANZ631) THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING, AS A STRONGER
NNE SURGE INCREASES WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
GALE WARNING FOR THE LOWER CHES. BAY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEED
ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS AND CONVERSIONS TO SCAS WITH FUTURE UPDATES. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT TO GALE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS AND 14 TO 18+ FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE PROLONGED N/NE WINDS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES
OF 8 TO 14 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR THAT REASON, HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
VAZ082-089-090-097-098-524-525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-
656-658.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637-
639.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ680-682-684-686-
688.
DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...AJB/KMC
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