345
FXUS61 KAKQ 201731
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
131 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. RH
VALUES HAVE TRENDED LOWER THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY, SUNNY, AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
2) PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF COASTAL
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 700 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY, SUNNY, AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
WEEK.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A COASTAL LOW WELL OFFSHORE. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT KEPT MOST SITES FROM DECOUPLING WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A BIT "MILDER" TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AS OF 7 AM. MEANWHILE, TEMPS WERE IN THE MID-UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST.
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY STALE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH A COASTAL LOW LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING CENTERED TO THE NW OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THU. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY THROUGH THU WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST. WED NIGHT/THU MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH MID-UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND TYPICALLY COOLER INLAND AREAS. AS SUCH, PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. THE ONLY DAY WHERE CLOUDS
COULD PUSH INLAND APPEARS TO BE WED AS THE COASTAL LOW POTENTIALLY
NUDGES BRIEFLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED WITH CLEARING EXPECTED BY THU. NEVERTHELESS, IF CLOUDS DO
MATERIALIZE ON WED, TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN COOLER, NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE 60S. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
POSSIBLE INLAND AND 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
WED. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THU AND FRI COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST.
COOL, DRY, AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (~1036 MB) BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE COOLEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S FOR
MOST (MID 60S ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC). ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE
STRONG HIGH OVER THE REGION, LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S
(POTENTIALLY COOLER IN SPOTS) ACROSS INLAND AREAS SAT AND SUN
MORNINGS WITH FROST POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE EXACT DETAILS REGARDING
LOW TEMPS THOSE DAYS IS DEPENDENT UPON THE POSITION OF THE HIGH. IF
THE HIGH IS CENTERED FARTHER NORTH, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE MILDER AND
VICE VERSA. OTHERWISE, MODELS INDICATE THAT DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY
HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK
(AT LEAST).
KEY MESSAGE 2...PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF COASTAL
FLOODING.
PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY IN AN ASTRONOMICAL NEAP TIDE CYCLE, WHICH WILL HELP
MITIGATE PEAK WATER LEVELS. EVEN SO, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING HIGH TIDES THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. THE FIRST HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH MANY SITES ACROSS
ADJACENT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, TIDAL JAMES RIVER, AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD STAGE. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAMPTON ROADS AND AREAS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN ADDITION, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE/NORTHERN PENINSULAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT AREAS ALONG THE TIDAL YORK RIVER STAY BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE WITH THIS FIRST ROUND, THUS ADVISORIES HAVE NOT BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS YET.
TIDAL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER LEVELS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE TIDAL
ANOMALIES CURRENTLY ARE NOT TRENDING AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WITH THE LOWER ANOMALIES AND LOWER NNE WIND GUSTS,
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING, RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL
FLOODING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR THE
EASTERN MID-UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY BY WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST A SIGNAL THAT
BISHOP'S HEAD MAY APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY. LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
LATER IN THIS WEEK FOR ANY LOCALIZED MODERATE STAGE FLOODING,
DEPENDING ON TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A BRIGHT, SUNNY DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY, VFR IS OBSERVED AND WILL VERY LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
THE WINDS, WHICH WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE N THIS AFTERNOON,
HIGHEST AT ORF AND ECG (UP TO 25 KT). WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KT
TONIGHT, EXCEPT 12-17 KT FOR ORF AND ECG. GUSTY N WINDS
REDEVELOP LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE MORNING, BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE CLOUDS AWAY FROM OUR LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LONG DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A NOR'EASTER MEANDERS OFFSHORE.
= THE WIND FORECAST OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER
AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST DUE TO LARGE
BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE (~1030 MB) REMAINS SITUATED
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL LOW
CONTINUES TO LINGER WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NNE, AVERAGING ~15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ~20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35+ KNOTS. WINDS OVER THE RIVERS
(INCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES) ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH SCA CRITERIA AT
THIS HOUR. SEAS ARE AVERAGING 8 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS AND 12 TO 15+ FEET OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET, WITH 8+ FEET AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
THE GENERAL THEME EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
WIND/WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/RIVERS, AS THE
LOW TRENDS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS DOWN WITH WIND
SPEEDS. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED 35 KNOT GUST AT THE MOUTH OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, NOT EXPECTING ANY GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AT
THIS TIME. LATEST WIND PROBS MAX OUT ~15% TONIGHT FOR GALE GUSTS
OVER THE FAR LOWER BAY TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, ALL GALE HEADLINES FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. ALSO CONTEMPLATED CANCELING THE SCAS FOR THE
UPPER RIVERS, BUT ULTIMATELY LEFT THEM IN PLACE WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT
GUSTS STILL A POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY AT
THE EASTERN-MOST PORTION OF EACH ZONE). FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
STILL EXPECTING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY 20-60 NM) TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS FALL BELOW
GALE THRESHOLDS. HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ALL ZONES AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS LIKELY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS
FOR ALL ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN CHURNED
UP TO 5+ FEET. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS TO A
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY CALM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS AND 12 TO 15+ FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY,
GIVEN THE PROLONGED N/NE WINDS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. FOR THAT REASON, HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS. A VERY SLOW DIMINISHING
TREND IN THE SEAS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND BEYOND, THOUGH SEAS
LIKELY LINGER AROUND 5+ FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR VAZ075-077-078-085-086.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ082-089-
090-097-524-525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-
656-658.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ680-682-684-686-
688.
DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB
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