975
FXUS61 KAKQ 202328
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
728 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z/20 TAF PERIOD.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY LOWERING
OVERNIGHT TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALSO,
INCREASED DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED, WHICH YIELDS LOWER
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY, SUNNY, AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
2) PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ELEVATED TIDE
CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF COASTAL FLOODING. &
&
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BREEZY, SUNNY, AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES
THIS WEEK.
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON. THE PESKY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE (STACKED UNDER AN UPPER LOW),
THOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ALL THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF THE REGION. OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL DAY
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
COMPRESSED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, EXCEPT
STAYING IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE NORTHERLY BREEZE OFF
THE WATER WILL MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES.
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT WX CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW WILL
PROBABLY RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE COAST BY ~50 MILES TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT
THE COAST. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS FOR
THE EASTERN ~THIRD OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST TO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY
UPPER 60S INLAND. THE STACKED LOW OFFSHORE FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT A BRISK SPEED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS AS IT GETS A
KICK FROM A DIGGING, NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
AND SE CANADA. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE
60S FOR MOST, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S INLAND
AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. THE DRY WX PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF COASTAL
FLOODING.
GENERALLY 1-2 FOOT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY RISING AS WATER LEVELS BUILD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND LEADING TO SOME NUISANCE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA TODAY. DUE TO THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEING LOWER WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AM
EXPECTING SIMILAR FLOODING WITH THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE AS THE
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.
THE ETSS, PETSS AND STOFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ANOMALIES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 2-3 FT ANOMALIES POSSIBLE.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE COASTAL LOW MAY BACK WESTWARD
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF WIND SPEED. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE SITES MORE PRONE TO FLOODING (LYNNHAVEN,
SMITHFIELD, BAYFORD, ETC.) TO TOUCH MODERATE FLOODING DURING THE
HIGH TIDES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME AS THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOO HIGH FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT SO FAR AND THE CONFIDENCE IS
JUST NOT THERE TO ISSUE ANY WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME.
THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND ALSO THE WATER LEVELS, EXCEPT FOR
THE UPPER BAY WHERE WATER LEVELS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SOME AS SOME
WATER GETS TRAPPED IN THE BAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER FLOOD TIDES AT
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY OWING TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z/20 TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL B E 5-10
KT OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT 12-17 AT ORF/ECG. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH THE COAST IN
THE MORNING, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE CLOUDS AWAY FROM OUR
LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN THE RIVERS WHILE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
- BRIEF LULL IN WINDS TODAY, HOWEVER THEY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE
LOW DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.
- THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST STARTING THURSDAY LEADING
TO A SLOW DECREASE IN WIND AND WAVES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS IN THE BAY
GUSTING TO 25 KT AND THE COASTAL WATERS GUSTING TO 30-35KT. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE DESPITE THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
NOT SHOWING ANY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS, WE
THE GALES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE AND
NOT IMPACT THE VERY NEARSHORE OR ANYWHERE IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LOCAL 34KT WIND GUST EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES SHOW NEAR 0% AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY, 60 PERCENT AT CHESAPEAKE LIGHT AND >80% OFFSHORE
AT THE CANYONS.
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE. BY WED NIGHT THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE FINALLY SHOWS THE LOW STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND HELPING TO PUSH THE SURFACE LOW AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD FINALLY END ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WATERS
BY WED EVENING. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
SO, WHILE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SPEAKING OF SEAS/WAVES, HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE WITH WAVES OF 8 TO
16 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 11-14 SEC. SEAS IN THE
BAY GENERALLY RANGE 2 TO 5 FEET. EXPECT THESE WAVES TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL WITH THE NE
WINDS, EXPECT 5 TO 8 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/ENTRANCE TO THE
BAY AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE BAY ITSELF SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DESPITE THE WEAKENING WIND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ075-077-
078-085-086.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ082-089-
090-097-524-525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-
658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ680-682-684-686-
688.
DISCUSSION...SW/MRD
AVIATION...KMC/SW
MARINE...MRD
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