395
FXUS61 KAKQ 210623
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
223 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER DURING THE DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT.
ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUNNY AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
2) PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ELEVATED TIDE
CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF COASTAL FLOODING. &
&
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SUNNY AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, CENTERED
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND SE CANADA. MEANWHILE, A
COASTAL LOW LINGERS WELL OFFSHORE. TEMPS AS OF 2 AM RANGED FROM THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50F INLAND WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST. MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ARE EXPECTED INLAND WITH MID
50S ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN FARTHER EAST THAN
MODELS INDICATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS SUCH, IT IS
DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT THE LOW WILL NUDGE BACK WEST AT THIS
POINT INTO HIGH PRESSURE. NEVERTHELESS, MODELS STILL TRY TO SHOW
THE LOW NUDGING A BIT WEST TODAY WHILE DEEPENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE KEPT THE OUTER CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE LOW
REACHING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER THE OCEAN AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AND
IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ONLY A PORTION OF THE EASTERN SHORE
SEES ANY CLOUDS TODAY WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA LIKELY REMAINING SUNNY. GIVEN THE TREND FOR SUNNY
CONDITIONS TODAY, TEMPS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE COAST AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SHORE AND UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS MAY EVEN REACH 70F IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THU WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IN FACT, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70F. HOWEVER, AS THE COOL, STRONG HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST FRI AND SAT (POTENTIALLY UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE AND MID 60S ACROSS NE NC). TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S BY SUN AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MON AND
TUE. MEANWHILE, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NEAR I-95 TO THE LOWER
40S EAST OF I-95 AND AROUND 50F ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING. AS SUCH, SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES DON'T LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST IS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH THE HIGH
CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND TYPICALLY COOLER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK AND S/SE VA. CURRENTLY HAVE
LOWS THAT NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, UPPER 30S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FAR FROM THE COAST, 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST,
AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOUISA GETS DOWN TO AROUND 32-33F. AS SUCH
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE FROST ADVISORIES ARE WARRANTED.
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH ADDITIONAL PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COOL AS FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN BREEZY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH
DAY THROUGH FRI WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH TODAY AND 20-25 MPH THU
AN FRI. INLAND WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY, HOWEVER, GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH
POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE
ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF COASTAL
FLOODING.
GENERALLY 1-2 FOOT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY RISING AS WATER LEVELS BUILD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND LEADING TO SOME NUISANCE TO MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA TODAY. DUE TO THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEING LOWER WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AM
EXPECTING SIMILAR FLOODING WITH THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE AS THE
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.
THE ETSS, PETSS AND STOFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ANOMALIES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 2-3 FT ANOMALIES POSSIBLE.
THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE COASTAL LOW MAY BACK WESTWARD
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF WIND SPEED. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE SITES MORE PRONE TO FLOODING (LYNNHAVEN,
SMITHFIELD, BAYFORD, ETC.) TO TOUCH MODERATE FLOODING DURING THE
HIGH TIDES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS WED NIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME AS THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOO HIGH FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT SO FAR AND THE CONFIDENCE IS
JUST NOT THERE TO ISSUE ANY WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME.
THE LOW FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE AND ALSO THE WATER LEVELS, EXCEPT FOR
THE UPPER BAY WHERE WATER LEVELS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SOME AS SOME
WATER GETS TRAPPED IN THE BAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER FLOOD TIDES AT
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY OWING TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 6Z TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. SOME CIRRUS MAY APPROACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY REACHING SBY, ORF, AND PHF WITH THE
BEST CHANCE AT SBY. IF THE CLOUDS DO PUSH FAR ENOUGH INLAND, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS REACHES SBY AS WELL. HOWEVER, CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR EVEN IN THAT SCENARIO. OTHERWISE, N WINDS
WERE LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ORF AND ECG REPORTING
WINDS ABOVE 5 KT (BOTH REPORTING 10 KT WINDS). WINDS INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AREA-WIDE.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE COAST WITH ORF AND ECG LIKELY A
FEW KNOTS HIGHER THAN INLAND TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME BREEZY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT EACH
NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN THE RIVERS WHILE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
- BRIEF LULL IN WINDS TODAY, HOWEVER THEY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE OFFSHORE
LOW DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.
- THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHEAST STARTING THURSDAY LEADING
TO A SLOW DECREASE IN WIND AND WAVES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS IN THE BAY
GUSTING TO 25 KT AND THE COASTAL WATERS GUSTING TO 30-35KT. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE DESPITE THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
NOT SHOWING ANY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS, WE
THE GALES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE AND
NOT IMPACT THE VERY NEARSHORE OR ANYWHERE IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
LOCAL 34KT WIND GUST EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES SHOW NEAR 0% AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY, 60 PERCENT AT CHESAPEAKE LIGHT AND >80% OFFSHORE
AT THE CANYONS.
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH THE LOW
STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY WELL OFFSHORE. BY WED NIGHT THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE FINALLY SHOWS THE LOW STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIVES INTO NEW
ENGLAND HELPING TO PUSH THE SURFACE LOW AWAY FROM THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD FINALLY END ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE WATERS
BY WED EVENING. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
SO, WHILE THE WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SPEAKING OF SEAS/WAVES, HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE WITH WAVES OF 8 TO
16 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PERIOD OF 11-14 SEC. SEAS IN THE
BAY GENERALLY RANGE 2 TO 5 FEET. EXPECT THESE WAVES TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL WITH THE NE
WINDS, EXPECT 5 TO 8 FT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/ENTRANCE TO THE
BAY AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE BAY ITSELF SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DESPITE THE WEAKENING WIND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ075-077-
078-085-086.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ082-089-
090-097-524-525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ680-682.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ684-686-688.
DISCUSSION...RMM/MRD
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MRD
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