020
FXUS61 KAKQ 211857
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
257 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL NEARSHORE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND
BAY-SIDE PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY FOR SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE (~990MB) REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ELEVATED
N AND NNW WINDS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BUT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND
BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 AND LOW 40S
TO THE EAST. IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S WITH MORE MIXING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED/COOLER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN FROST COVERAGE FOR ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING AWAY BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY
WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A LITTLE MORE WIND
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW TO
MID 40S FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE WATER. COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 N TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE,
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE
PIEDMONT. LOOKING AHEAD, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND A NEAR ZERO CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 2 FT, EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR BAY-SIDE PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR VA BEACH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS AND HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ADJACENT TIDAL RIVERS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT. SKC FOR ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS OR STRATUS MAY CREEP INTO SBY, ORF, OR ECG AS
LOBES OF LIFT/VORTICITY ROTATE AROUND THE OFFSHORE LOW. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FROM THESE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT, BECOMING NW WITH TIME INTO THURSDAY
AS THE OFFSHORE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY TO THE N AND NE.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME BREEZY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT EACH
NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, BUT REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.
- ELEVATED N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES ARE THEN LIKELY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY,
DUE TO PERSISTENT LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
LATEST OBS SHOW N-NNE WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE UPPER RIVERS, 15-25 KT
OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, HIGHEST OFFSHORE. WAVES WERE 2 TO 4 FT NORTH OF
WINDMILL POINT, 3 TO 6 FT SOUTH, WITH SEAS 6-10 FT, BUT STILL 10-14
FT OFFSHORE.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, AS THE DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA. THE
HIGH SURF ADVY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO TOMORROW, AS THE LARGE SWELLS
AND BREAKING WAVES PERSIST A BIT LONGER, THOUGH THEY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH THEY DO
CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. GALES
HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA, WHICH CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SCA OVER
THE BAY WILL DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE
NEEDED AGAIN BY LATE TOMORROW AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH GRADIENT RE-
TIGHTENING AS ADDITIONAL STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA, LOOK FOR WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE E-NE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, INCREASING BACK INTO SCA RANGE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LOWER
BAY/LOWER JAMES AND THE SOUND (WIND PROBABILITIES FOR WINDS OF ~18-
22 KT HAVE IMPROVED TO 60-90% IN THIS AREA). THUS, WHILE THE WINDS
LIKELY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE SEAS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AND IN
NEED OF SCA HEADLINES FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
IN REGARDS TO SEAS/WAVES, EXPECT WAVES AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL WITH THE NE WINDS, EXPECT 5 TO 8 FT SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/ENTRANCE TO THE BAY AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE BAY
ITSELF SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE LATER SAT AND SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
082>086-089-090-097-518-520>525-528>531.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ680-682.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ684-686-688.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM
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