529
FXUS61 KAKQ 220525
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
125 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE (~990MB) REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ELEVATED
N AND NNW WINDS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BUT WILL
REMAIN BREEZY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND
BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 AND LOW 40S
TO THE EAST. IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S WITH MORE MIXING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED/COOLER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN FROST COVERAGE FOR ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE FINALLY MOVING AWAY BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY
WITH MOST SPOTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A LITTLE MORE WIND
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH LOW TO
MID 40S FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE WATER. COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 60 N TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE,
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE
PIEDMONT. LOOKING AHEAD, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND A NEAR ZERO CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 2 FT, EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR BAY-SIDE PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR VA BEACH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS AND HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ADJACENT TIDAL RIVERS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE
(INCLUDING SBY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CLOUD DECK FROM
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WELL OFFSHORE. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND SUNRISE AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER AWAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT N WINDS MAINLY UNDER 5 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT (<5 KT) AGAIN THU NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME LIGHT EACH NIGHT AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED
FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, BUT REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.
- ELEVATED N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES ARE
THEN LIKELY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY,
DUE TO PERSISTENT LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW N-NNE WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE UPPER RIVERS
AND 15-25 KT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS (HIGHEST OFFSHORE). WAVES ARE 2-4 FT NORTH OF
WINDMILL POINT AND 3-6 FT TO THE SOUTH. COASTAL SEAS RUN 6-10 FT,
WITH 10-14 FT SEAS LINGERING IN OFFSHORE ZONES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE TRACKS TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA. GALE WARNINGS
OFFSHORE EXPIRE LATE THIS EVENING AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATER
SCA INTO THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY BEYOND. ACROSS THE BAY, EXPECT
THAT WINDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. STRONG, CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, SERVING
TO RE-TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE E-NE. CHANNELING SHOULD DRIVE
WINDS BACK UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS, AND IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS HAVE
TRENDED UP TO 60-90% PROBABILITY OF 18-22KT SUSTAINED WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
REGARDING WAVES AND SEAS, N-NE SWELL/WIND WAVE SUBSIDES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL
KEEP COASTAL SEAS AT 5-8 FT, WITH WAVES IN THE LOWER BAY AT 3-5
FT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SCA HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NECESSARY ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024-
025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075-
077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
082>086-089-090-097-518-520>525-528>531.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM
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