759
FXUS61 KAKQ 220651
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
251 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THIS MORNING. SUBTROPICAL STORM
JOSEPHINE HAS FORMED WELL OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
2) ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WELL OFFSHORE.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ACROSS THE FA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTLINE AND EASTERN SHORE WHERE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS,
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOW-MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE,
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AND NOW HAVE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE PIEDMONT
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN VA. AS SUCH, PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THOSE AREAS. ALONG THE COAST,
MORNING LOWS AROUND 50F ARE EXPECTED.
JOSEPHINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND SUNRISE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL
TONIGHT WITH LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND LOW-MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST LARGELY DUE TO A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT (AS OPPOSED TO CALM) AND WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH DAY.
THE ONLY DAY THAT LOOKS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
IN THE SKY IS FRI WHERE PARTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER, EVEN THESE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS AT NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT FRI, SAT, AND SUN NIGHTS. EACH OF THESE NIGHTS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MID 30S INLAND. HOWEVER,
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
INLAND. THE COOLEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE HIGH. AS SUCH, PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS. MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN CASE FROST ADVISORIES
ARE NEED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING NO RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MONTH. IF THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH FOR A DRY
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD
ARISE. FORTUNATELY, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS
ARE RESULTING IN TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 2 FT, EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR BAY-SIDE PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR VA BEACH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS AND HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ADJACENT TIDAL RIVERS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE
(INCLUDING SBY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CLOUD DECK FROM
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WELL OFFSHORE. EVEN THESE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND SUNRISE AS THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER AWAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT N WINDS MAINLY UNDER 5 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAY. GUSTS UP TO 15-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT (<5 KT) AGAIN THU NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME LIGHT EACH NIGHT AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED
FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, BUT REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.
- ELEVATED N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES ARE
THEN LIKELY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST INTO THURSDAY,
DUE TO PERSISTENT LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW N-NNE WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE UPPER RIVERS
AND 15-25 KT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS (HIGHEST OFFSHORE). WAVES ARE 2-4 FT NORTH OF
WINDMILL POINT AND 3-6 FT TO THE SOUTH. COASTAL SEAS RUN 6-10 FT,
WITH 10-14 FT SEAS LINGERING IN OFFSHORE ZONES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE TRACKS TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA. GALE WARNINGS
OFFSHORE EXPIRE LATE THIS EVENING AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATER
SCA INTO THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY BEYOND. ACROSS THE BAY, EXPECT
THAT WINDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. STRONG, CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, SERVING
TO RE-TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE E-NE. CHANNELING SHOULD DRIVE
WINDS BACK UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS, AND IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS HAVE
TRENDED UP TO 60-90% PROBABILITY OF 18-22KT SUSTAINED WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
REGARDING WAVES AND SEAS, N-NE SWELL/WIND WAVE SUBSIDES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL
KEEP COASTAL SEAS AT 5-8 FT, WITH WAVES IN THE LOWER BAY AT 3-5
FT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SCA HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NECESSARY ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024-
025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075-
077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
082>086-089-090-518-520>524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ097-
098-525-529>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM
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