914
FXUS61 KAKQ 221720
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
120 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE HAS FORMED WELL OFFSHORE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR VIRGINIA BEACH WAS CANCELLED.
TIMING WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR SOME OF THE EXISTING COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
BEACHES WAS CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
2) ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WELL OFFSHORE.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ACROSS THE FA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTLINE AND EASTERN SHORE WHERE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED. GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS,
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOW-MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE,
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AND NOW HAVE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE PIEDMONT
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN VA. AS SUCH, PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THOSE AREAS. ALONG THE COAST,
MORNING LOWS AROUND 50F ARE EXPECTED.
JOSEPHINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND SUNRISE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL
TONIGHT WITH LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND LOW-MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST LARGELY DUE TO A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH ALLOWS WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT (AS OPPOSED TO CALM) AND WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS FROM DECOUPLING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH DAY.
THE ONLY DAY THAT LOOKS TO HAVE A NOTICEABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
IN THE SKY IS FRI WHERE PARTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. HOWEVER, EVEN THESE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET. THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS AT NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT FRI, SAT, AND SUN NIGHTS. EACH OF THESE NIGHTS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY MID 30S INLAND. HOWEVER,
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
INLAND. THE COOLEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE HIGH. AS SUCH, PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
NIGHTS. MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN CASE FROST ADVISORIES
ARE NEED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING NO RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MONTH. IF THIS PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH FOR A DRY
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD
ARISE. FORTUNATELY, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE (JOSEPHINE) LINGERING OFFSHORE WITH ELEVATED WINDS
AND LARGE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 2 FT,
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT FURTHER OVER THE NEXT ~24 HOURS.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BAY-SIDE PORTIONS
OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS WELL AS ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
ELSEWHERE, NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY FOR MOST AREAS AND HAVE BEEN INTO FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
ADJACENT TIDAL RIVERS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. N WINDS MAINLY 10-15
KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT, HIGHEST AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NE WINDS INCREASE BACK TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME LIGHT EACH NIGHT AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
- ELEVATED N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
SCA HEADLINES ARE THEN LIKELY FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES
INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO PERSISTENT LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 7 TO 9
FEET. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES WERE CANCELLED.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE (~1028 MB) REMAINS SITUATED
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MEANWHILE, SUBTROPICAL STORM
JOSEPHINE (988 MB) LINGERS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
JOSEPHINE WILL PICK UP SPEED AND TRACK WELL OFF TO THE NNE LATER
TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE N-NE, AVERAGING
~15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND ~15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS. WINDS OVER THE RIVERS (INCLUDING THE LOWER JAMES) ARE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA AT THIS TIME, GENERALLY ~10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE AVERAGING 6
TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS AND 10 TO 14+ FEET
OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET,
WITH 5+ FEET AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS JOSEPHINE TRACKS NNE TOWARD
ATLANTIC CANADA. ALL GALE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED, BUT
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATER SCAS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. ACROSS THE BAY, EXPECT THAT WINDS DROP BELOW CRITERIA LATER
THIS MORNING (ESPECIALLY THE MIDDLE BAY). HOWEVER, THIS LULL WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. STRONG, CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, SERVING TO RE-TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE E-NE. CHANNELING
LIKELY DRIVES WINDS BACK UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS, AND IN-HOUSE WIND
PROBS HAVE TRENDED UP TO 60-90% PROBABILITY OF 18-22KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
REGARDING WAVES AND SEAS, N-NE SWELL/WIND WAVE SUBSIDES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL KEEP
COASTAL SEAS AT 5-8 FT, WITH WAVES IN THE LOWER BAY AT 3-5 FT.
THEREFORE, EXPECT SCA HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NECESSARY ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024-
025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075-
077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
082>086-089-090-518-520>524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ097-
098-525-529>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/MAM
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