519
FXUS61 KAKQ 221858
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ENDED. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CONUS
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS
EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE SAW THIS
MORNING DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS BEHIND A DRY FRONT. LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 40S INLAND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE WATER.
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
PRIOR TO SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE FOR A FEW HOURS. BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE 30S, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS EDGED UPWARD REGARDING LOW
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME FROST IN THE COOLER
SPOTS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR ZERO INDICATIONS FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LARGE SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE
COAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER ON/QB IS GRADUALLY BUILDING S
IN THE WAKE OF JOSEPHINE. TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN ~2FT ABOVE NORMAL
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE SWELL FROM JOSEPHINE. THESE ANOMALIES SHOULD
REMAIN STEADY AND/OR SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE,
PRIMARILY NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND ANY
LINGERING COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES. NUISANCE TO LOCALLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE
COAST WITH PERSISTENT (BUT WEAKER) ONSHORE FLOW, AS WELL AS A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AS WE APPROACH FULL MOON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM FOR VA BEACH AND OUTER
BANKS CURRITUCK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. N WINDS MAINLY 10-15
KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT, HIGHEST AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. NE WINDS INCREASE BACK TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME LIGHT EACH NIGHT AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
- ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER.
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE IS TRACKING NE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE, 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ON/QB. THE
WIND IS GENERALLY N 15-20KT ACROSS THE CHES. BAY AND OCEAN, AND 10-
15KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS RANGE FROM 6-8FT N TO 8-10FT S, WITH 2-3FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY (3-4FT AT THE MOUTH). STRONG, CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, SERVING TO
RE-TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL NORTHERLY
SURGE TONIGHT, SO THE SCAS FOR THE MIDDLE BAY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE E-NE.
CHANNELING LIKELY DRIVES WINDS BACK UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS, AND IN-
HOUSE WIND PROBS HAVE TRENDED UP TO 60-90% PROBABILITY OF 18-22KT
SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND
CURRITUCK SOUND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SO, ADDITIONAL SCA
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THESE ZONES.
REGARDING WAVES AND SEAS, N-NE SWELL/WIND WAVE SUBSIDES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT ONSHORE NE FLOW WILL KEEP
COASTAL SEAS AT 5-8 FT (POTENTIALLY 8-10FT S), WITH WAVES IN THE
LOWER BAY AT 3-5 FT. THEREFORE, EXPECT SCA HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS WIND SPEEDS
DIMINISH.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024-
025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
082>086-089-090-518-520>524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ097-
098-525-529>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
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