854
FXUS61 KALY 150056
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS EVENING,
SPRAWLING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE EMBEDDED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THESE
CLOUDS, HIGH, THOUGH GRADUALLY BECOMING THICKER IN NATURE, HAVE
STALLED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES NOT HAVING CHANGED
MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT COOLING
PRIOR TO THE EXPANSION OF COVERAGE ENABLED THE FALLING OF
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
UPPER 20S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTH AND
EAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE KEPT AT BAY AS WE, WITH RIDGING REMAINING
DOMINANT ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, BECOME
SQUEEZED BETWEEN THIS AND A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
TO OUR EAST IN THE WESTER ATLANTIC. SO ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE A
DRY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO FALL WIDELY INTO THE
20S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING INTO A SURFACE WAVE. THE
ADJACENCY OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, HOWEVER, WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW RETROGRADING TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL BECOME BREEZY TOMORROW WITH A LIGHTER
BREEZE ELSEWHERE COURTESY OF THE DOMINANT HIGH. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID/UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND MID 50S IN THE LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILST THE INLAND DISTURBANCE MOVES OFFSHORE AT THE CAROLINAS
AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE NORTH AND
WEST, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
REGION FROM CENTRAL CONUS TOMORROW NIGHT. DRY, MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE PERSIST TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH A SUFFICIENT BREEZE
LOOKING TO KEEP THINGS MIXED AND LIMIT ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST AND AMPLIFY UPSTREAM
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE ONCE OCEANIC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEREFORE INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AT HIGH TERRAIN
REGIONS AND 50S IN LARGE VALLEY AREAS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
THEN FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS QUEBEC
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA.
MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH BY THURSDAY WHERE FASTER SOLUTIONS BRING
RAIN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. SLOWER
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DROPPING TO
NEAR SEASONABLE DURING THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR
NORTH. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A RESULT OF A
NEARBY DISTURBANCE, BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR DESPITE
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
WITH WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE BREEZY GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR UNDER 10 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT, BERKSHIRE
COUNTY MA AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR EASTERN NY ON SATURDAY.
A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS IN SOME SPOTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH AND RH VALUES
LOWERING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY THEREFORE BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ208-209.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VTZ036>038.
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GANT
SHORT TERM...GANT
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...GANT
FIRE WEATHER...SND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page