929
FXUS61 KALY 151410
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE AS OF 9:10 AM EST... ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES AS THEY ARE IN THE LOW 20S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
DOING WELL AND ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
UPDATE
AS OF 610 AM EST, CLOUDS ARE THINNING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WHERE BREAKS
IN THE HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPED. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THIS
AFTERNOON.
[PREVIOUS 354 AM EST]...AS OF 350 AM EST, WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID 20S TO THE LOWER/MID 30S.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, THEN
SHOULD THIN OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THURSDAY, REACHING
50-55 IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST, AND 45-50 TO
THE NORTH/WEST, WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL 6
PM SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION, EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, EXTREME NORTHEAST SCHOHARIE
COUNTY, THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND TACONICS...
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25-30 MPH WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES,
AND 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET FOR THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING, WITH LOW TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MID 20S TO AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS
SATURDAY (45-50 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS), WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S SUNDAY (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS).
CLOUDS THICKEN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATER AT NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY. SOME LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND
FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S EXCEPT UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. A PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS THEN LOOKING MORE
PROBABLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING, STORM TRACK AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL
OCCURS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS DECREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO SKC TONIGHT. WIND WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (EXCEPT NORTHEASTERLY AT KGFL) AND REMAIN
BETWEEN 5-10 KT TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME BORDERLINE LLWS AT
SOME SITES TONIGHT AS 2000 FT WINDS INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT.
HOWEVER, SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS CRITERIA FROM BEING REACHED. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY INCLUSION
WITH THIS UPDATE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SCATTERED SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT, BERKSHIRE
COUNTY MA AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR EASTERN NY ON SATURDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH ACROSS
EASTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND,
ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 20-40 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON, LOWEST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
RH RECOVERS TO 70-90% TONIGHT, WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
5-15 MPH, POSSIBLY BECOMING CALM IN SOME VALLEY AREAS.
ON SATURDAY, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. RH
WILL DROP TO 20-40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON, LOWEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
WHILE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ208-209.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ036>038.
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/WEBB
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...RATHBUN
AVIATION...RATHBUN
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
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