415
FXUS61 KALY 160216
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF ALBANY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEN DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNS FOR MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
UPDATE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGHLY VARIED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CALM WINDS ENABLING RADIATION TO FREELY RUN ITS COURSE IN
SOME AREAS AND A LIGHT BREEZE HINDERING IT OTHERS BY ALLOWING
SUFFICIENT MIXING TO CONTINUE TAKING PLACE. AS SUCH, THE MAIN
ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
ALL ELSE REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE: DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FOR TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
AS OF 4:15 PM EST... MINOR UPDATE TO DEWPOINTS TEMPERATURE FOR
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS AS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THEM
RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 25 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE AND AS
THE SUN SETS TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST IS DOING WELL AND ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
AS OF 12:30 PM... GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH, WHICH SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. A BLUSTERY DAY IS IN STORE
TOMORROW AS WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON GOING FROM 5 TO 10 MPH TO 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS
DECREASE TOMORROW NIGHT BECOMING CALMER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN
THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S. SUNDAY IS ANOTHER DRY DAY IN STORE WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY AND UPPER 30S FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION (40%) FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE: AFTER A PROLONGED DURATION OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN THE POTENTIAL OF THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN SEVERAL WEEKS OCCURRING AT THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY MONDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION, IN CLOSE SUCCESSION TO
THE MORNING PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE,
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE REGION TO REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL PRIMARILY SPAN THE 40S AND 50S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER
30S ABOVE 2000 FT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE
30S WHILE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN
SEVERAL WEEKS CONTINUES TO BE HINTED AT IN MEDIUM- TO LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE AS TAKING PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RESPONSIBLE SYSTEM, GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPENING OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST FROM SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA/NORTHERN MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM ALOFT WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF GENEROUS RAIN
LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY CONNECTING THE TWO LOWS. THE DURATION OF
RAINFALL AND EXACT QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT THE NBM
PROBABILISTIC FORECAST INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (70-90%) OF AT
LEAST 0.5" ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WHILE THIS WOULD MERELY MAKE A MINOR DENT IN THE CURRENT RAINFALL
DEFICIT, ANY RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH POCKETS
OF UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE WITH MAINLY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE GREATEST POSSIBLE IMPACT TO FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE 00Z CYCLE WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. WITH WINDS 1-2 KFT ALOFT
INCREASING TO 30-40 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAINING
RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW, LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR COULD POSE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING, ELIMINATING THIS FACTOR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
TOMORROW FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 35 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUSTAINED WINDS CAN BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. WITH THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE COMBINATION OF THE PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY, CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
WIND GUSTS DECREASE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ208-209.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ036>038.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
NEAR TERM...GANT/WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...GANT
AVIATION...GANT
FIRE WEATHER...WEBB
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