315
FXUS61 KALY 162005
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
305 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
CAPITAL REGION, EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
TACONICS IN NY, AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT ONCE THE WINDS
DECREASE, RANGING FROM MID 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER
30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AFTER CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
DUE TO SUNSHINE AND RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDING IN. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER (NW 5-10 MPH) COMPARED
TO SAT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUN EVENING LOOKS DRY/TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. EVEN LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ONLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.10". LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY MID
TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ON MON IN WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. PEAK GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY. MORNING SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH OF ALBANY SHOULD TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT, RESULTING IN
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LOWS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
TRANQUIL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUE, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT, PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THOUGH AS A WARM
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN STORY DURING THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST APPRECIABLE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN A WHILE. AT THIS TIME
THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATING A LARGE/ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS (MAX QPF AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS), BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SOLID PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED
FLOW PATTERN, A WAVE OR MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
THIS IS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND MULTI-MODEL
LONG RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR > 0.50" RAIN ARE IN THE
50-70% RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND 20- 50% FOR > 1.0".
WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WAVE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK.
IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT, COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO
WRAP AROUND FROM THE SOUTH/WEST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN FRI
INTO SAT. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES, WILL
CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS UNTIL THE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS, PRECIP TYPE FAVORS SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRI INTO SAT WITH AT LEAST SOME
ACCUMULATION. MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAVORED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN ESPECIALLY AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES (NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS).
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED
VSBYS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-30 KT
WILL CONTINUE AT ALB/PSF/POU, BEFORE GUSTS END AND SUSTAINED
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT AFTER 21-24Z SAT. AT GFL, TERRAIN
EFFECTS WILL YIELD SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. DECREASING WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXCEEDING
30 KT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST, MOST LIKELY WHERE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST AT GFL THROUGH 03Z SUN, AND AT POU
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KT AFTER 14-15Z SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE MID HUDSON AND
CATSKILL FDRA IN NY, AND FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
MIN RH DROPPED TO BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH FOR AREAS
WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AND 10 TO 20 MPH
ELSEWHERE.
THE RH WILL RECOVER TO 60 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH.
ON SUNDAY, RH WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY, GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. IN COORDINATION WITH NY STATE, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE MID HUDSON AND
CATSKILLS FDRAS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ208-209.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ036>038.
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...PICARD
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
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