176
FXUS61 KALY 170523
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
UPDATE
AS OF 1220 AM EST, PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED
INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY ERODING AND
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH
WIDELY VARYING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN BASED ON WHERE WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AND/OR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 20S/LOWER 30S WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM, WHILE
REMAINING AROUND 40 WHERE WINDS PERSIST.
THROUGH DAYBREAK, EXPECT THE WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS TO PERSIST,
WITH SOME AREAS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S (MOST LIKELY
WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ALSO
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND), AND
LOWER/MID 30S WHERE SOME WIND AND/OR PATCHY CLOUDS LINGER (SUCH
AS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY REGION).
PREVIOUS UPDATE
SEEING SOME BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
MAINLY FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CLOUDS IN THIS
VICINITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE REST OF THE
REGION REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREV DISCUSSION [305 PM EST]
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN LAST
NIGHT ONCE THE WINDS DECREASE, RANGING FROM MID 20S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AFTER CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
DUE TO SUNSHINE AND RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BUILDING IN. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER (NW 5-10 MPH) COMPARED
TO SAT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUN EVENING LOOKS DRY/TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY. EVEN LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ONLY LOOKS TO BE < 0.10". LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS COLD DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY MID
TO UPPER 30S.
IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ON MON IN WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSAGE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. PEAK GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY. MORNING SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH OF ALBANY SHOULD TAPER OFF TO ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT, RESULTING IN
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
LOWS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.
TRANQUIL/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUE, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT, PROVIDING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THOUGH AS A WARM
FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN STORY DURING THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FIRST APPRECIABLE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN A WHILE. AT THIS TIME
THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATING A LARGE/ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS (MAX QPF AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS), BUT INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SOLID PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ALONG THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT. WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED
FLOW PATTERN, A WAVE OR MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR
THIS IS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND MULTI-MODEL
LONG RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR > 0.50" RAIN ARE IN THE
50-70% RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND 20- 50% FOR > 1.0".
WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WAVE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK.
IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT, COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO
WRAP AROUND FROM THE SOUTH/WEST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN FRI
INTO SAT. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES, WILL
CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS UNTIL THE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND EVENTUALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS, PRECIP TYPE FAVORS SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRI INTO SAT WITH AT LEAST SOME
ACCUMULATION. MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE FAVORED IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT SNOW SHOWERS COULD MIX IN ESPECIALLY AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES (NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS).
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CAB'T
TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FT EXPANDING EASTWARDS FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY TOWARDS ALB FOR A HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, BUT PROBABILITY FOR THIS HAPPENING LOOKS QUITE LOW AND THUS
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE, JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH BECOME BKN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KT FROM THE NW BY MID-MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WILL MENTION LLWS AT POU THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH THE N/NW LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED AS OF 600 PM. THE RH WILL
RECOVER TO 60 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 5
TO 15 MPH.
ON SUNDAY, RH WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY, GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. IN COORDINATION WITH NY STATE, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MID HUDSON
AND CATSKILLS FDRAS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV/SPECK
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SPECK
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
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