600
FXUS61 KALY 171737
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY, BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MIDWEEK,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
FORM THE WEST, BUT ARE THIN ENOUGH TO JUST RESULT IN FILTERED
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THE 50S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION[0933]
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A SMALL AREA
OF LINGERING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE W. MOHAWK
VALLEY, OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES ARE PREVAILING. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY, HOWEVER SOME GUSTS OF 15-20
MPH COULD OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELD HILLS AND TACONICS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR
MOST VALLEY AREAS, EXCEPT LOWER 60S FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT, WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10". TEMPS TONIGHT MAY FALL INTO
THE LOWER/MID 30S WHERE SOME EARLY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPS MAY RISE IN MANY AREAS INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S TOWARD DAYBREAK.
AFTER ANY MORNING SHOWERS MONDAY, EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT AS A COMBINATION OF LAKE MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT, WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 50S TO AROUND
60 FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS, ALTHOUGH MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD 45-50 BUT SHOULD ALSO FALL BACK
THROUGH THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
CLOUDS MAY EXPAND SOUTH TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR FOR A PORTION OF
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. HOWEVER, A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD
REACH THE 50S IN VALLEYS AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE
HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH CORRESPONDING SUB-
1000 MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WHILE THE
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, IN THE 40S (TERRAIN) TO 50S (VALLEYS).
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
THIS SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN ONCE IT EMERGES OFF THE EAST COAST,
AND IT EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION,
WHICH WILL BE MUCH NEEDED. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS, IT MAY
RETROGRADE WESTWARDS INTO NEW ENGLAND AS IT IS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO PICK
UP ON THIS TYPE OF EVOLUTION, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED VALLEY
RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD
LINGER NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, LEADING TO GENERALLY COOL,
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS BENEATH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE GREATEST IN THE W/NW UPSLOPE AREAS AND ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
WHERE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT IF LIKELY.
WHILE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY REGION-WIDE, EXACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TIED TO THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL LOW AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW. LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER THAN 50% CHANCES FOR OVER 3
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, EVEN VALLEY AREAS
COULD SEE THEIR FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1.5" RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIKELY, WITH
THE GREATEST TOTALS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KFT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE CLOUD BASES DESCEND
TO 10-15 KFT INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH ALB/GFL
AROUND 09-15Z MON POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS TO PSF AND IMPACTS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT POU. BKN-OVC CIGS AT 5-10 KFT ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEFORE CLEARING ENSUES AFTER 15Z MON. MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE ONSET OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT PSF LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL YIELD LIGHT
WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE TRENDING TO
CALM CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z MON. FLOW WILL TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER 12-15Z MON,
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST MAY BEGIN AT ALB/PSF AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR TODAY, RH WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. IN COORDINATION WITH NY STATE, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MID HUDSON AND
CATSKILL FDRAS, WITH AN SPS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN MA/CT.
RH WILL RECOVER TO 70-100 PERCENT TONIGHT, WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90. WINDS WILL BE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH IN VALLEYS.
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING, WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. SOME GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT, WITH
GENERALLY 50-70 PERCENT ELSEWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...MAIN
AVIATION...PICARD
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page