458
FXUS61 KALY 172015
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
315 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. FAIR WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN. A DEVELOPING STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATER THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE/THICKEN AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT
SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. EVEN LOCATIONS
THAT DO RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL ONLY RECEIVE UP TO
0.10". LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES RISE LATE
TONIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MON MORNING OVER SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH,
THEN TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY MON AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BECOMING NW. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING
POTENTIAL TO ~850 MB, PEAK GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED AREAS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING,
FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY WITH COOLER UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT, RESULTING
IN WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERTURES EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUE, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. SO WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER THAN MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN
MON, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER RANGING FROM 40S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO 50S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT, PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
RIDING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WED, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WED NIGHT WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NY.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATING COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS THEN OCCURRING NEAR NYC WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD DEEPEN ONCE IT EMERGES
OFF THE EAST COAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THU. THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN A WHILE. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS, IT
MAY RETROGRADE NORTH/WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS IT IS CAPTURED BY
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THU NIGHT. THE EXACT
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT RECENT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS TYPE OF EVOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED VALLEY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR BENEATH THE UPPER LOW
MOVES IN. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LINGER NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST
SAT, LEADING TO GENERALLY COOL, CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-TERRAIN SNOW BENEATH MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE OF PRECIP LOOKS GREATEST IN THE W/NW
UPSLOPE AREAS AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
LIKELY.
WHILE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY REGION-WIDE, EXACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TIED TO THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
THE COASTAL LOW AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW. TOTAL
QPF OF 0.5 TO 1.5" IS EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN. MULTI-MODEL LONG RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLE PROBS
FOR > 0.50" QPF HAVE INCREASED TO 70-90% ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND 40-70% FOR > 1.0". GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. IN
TERMS OF SNOWFALL, PROBS ARE 40-60% FOR > 3" SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WHILE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KFT WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE CLOUD BASES DESCEND
TO 10-15 KFT INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO REACH ALB/GFL
AROUND 09-15Z MON POSSIBLY RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS TO PSF AND IMPACTS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT POU. BKN-OVC CIGS AT 5-10 KFT ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEFORE CLEARING ENSUES AFTER 15Z MON. MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE ONSET OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT PSF LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL YIELD LIGHT
WINDS OF 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE TRENDING TO
CALM CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z MON. FLOW WILL TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER 12-15Z MON,
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST MAY BEGIN AT ALB/PSF AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES DROPPED TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY THOUGH,
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. IN
COORDINATION WITH NY STATE, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
CONTINUES FOR THE MID HUDSON AND CATSKILL FDRAS, WITH AN SPS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN MA/CT
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
RH WILL RECOVER TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT, WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90. WINDS WILL BE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH IN VALLEYS.
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING, WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT,
WITH GENERALLY 50 TO 70 PERCENT ELSEWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IN COORDINATION WITH NY STATE PARTNERS, A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON AND
CATSKILLS FDRAS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...MAIN/JPV
AVIATION...PICARD
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
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