958
FXUS61 KALY 172351
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. FAIR WEATHER AND MILD
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN. A DEVELOPING STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATER THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
UPDATE AS OF 613 PM EST
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN-NORTHERN NY.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER. A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE FRONT MAY REACH THE
WESTERN DACKS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY AND
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
PREV DISCUSSION [0315 PM EST]...
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM,
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS CONFINED TO AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. EVEN LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL ONLY RECEIVE UP TO 0.10". LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE AS COOL DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER
30S. TEMPERATURES RISE LATE TONIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR MON MORNING OVER SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH,
THEN TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY MON AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS BECOMING NW. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING
POTENTIAL TO ~850 MB, PEAK GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED AREAS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO THE BERKSHIRES. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING,
FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY WITH COOLER UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT, RESULTING
IN WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERTURES EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUE, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. SO WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER THAN MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN
MON, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER RANGING FROM 40S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO 50S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT, PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
RIDING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON WED, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THE PERIOD BEGINS WED NIGHT WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NY.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATING COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS THEN OCCURRING NEAR NYC WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD DEEPEN ONCE IT EMERGES
OFF THE EAST COAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THU. THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN A WHILE. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS, IT
MAY RETROGRADE NORTH/WEST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS IT IS CAPTURED BY
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST THU NIGHT. THE EXACT
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT RECENT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS TYPE OF EVOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED VALLEY RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS COOLER AIR BENEATH THE UPPER LOW
MOVES IN. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LINGER NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST
SAT, LEADING TO GENERALLY COOL, CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-TERRAIN SNOW BENEATH MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE OF PRECIP LOOKS GREATEST IN THE W/NW
UPSLOPE AREAS AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS
LIKELY.
WHILE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY REGION-WIDE, EXACT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TIED TO THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
THE COASTAL LOW AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW. TOTAL
QPF OF 0.5 TO 1.5" IS EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN. MULTI-MODEL LONG RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLE PROBS
FOR > 0.50" QPF HAVE INCREASED TO 70-90% ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND 40-70% FOR > 1.0". GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. IN
TERMS OF SNOWFALL, PROBS ARE 40-60% FOR > 3" SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WHILE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, EVEN VALLEY AREAS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF PRIOR TO 08Z-12Z/MON BEFORE A LOWER STRATUS
DECK POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3.5-5 KFT AGL AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPOU...BUT MVFR CIGS IN THE 2-3 KFT AGL MAY FORM AT
KGFL- KPSF WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY
12Z-15Z/MON. WE DID KEEP A PROB30 FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE 10Z-14Z/MON TIME FRAME FOR KGFL...BUT USED
VCSH GROUPS FOR KALB/KPSF. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CIGS 3.5-5 KFT AGL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION AT 4 KT OR LESS OR
CALM TONIGHT. THEY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT
5-10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
8-13 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 KT AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
IN COORDINATION WITH NY STATE, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED FOR THE MID HUDSON AND CATSKILL FDRAS, WITH AN SPS ALSO
TO BE ISSUED BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN MA/CT FOR
MONDAY.
RH WILL RECOVER TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT, WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90. WINDS WILL BE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH IN VALLEYS.
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
MORNING, WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT,
WITH GENERALLY 50 TO 70 PERCENT ELSEWHERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...MAIN/JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
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