065
FXUS61 KALY 181101
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. DESPITE A FEW PASSING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, DRY WILL WILL RETURN LATER
TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
601 AM UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME .
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
MEANWHILE, REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS TODAY TO
TOTAL ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE, ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. DESPITE ITS PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH LOW 60 EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH IN THE MID
AND LOWER HUDSON VLY. WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOLLOWING
THE FRONT, FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TODAY AS MIN RH
VALUES FALL INTO THE 30-50% RANGE DOWN ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
HUDSON VLY REGIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS TODAY'S COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS
FROM ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW
A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS, COMBINED
WITH LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN UPSTREAM
AS A LARGE UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THIS HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT BY
EARLY THURSDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEGINS EJECTING ENERGY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARENT LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WITH DOWNSTREAM ENERGY
RESULTING IN SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
UPSTREAM LOW WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE WITH FCST MODELS AGREEING AN
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WILL EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR,
SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
FIRST ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH MODELS
AGREEING RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA
WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF 60-80% FOR 48-HR QPF EXCEEDING 1"
ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL BATCH, THE QUESTION
THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN SAG ACROSS OUR REGION AS
FCST MODELS SHOW SECONDARY LOW OFF THE COAST GRADUALLY
RETROGRADING AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT CIRCULATION
BY WEEK'S END, AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER OUR
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, ENOUGH
DYNAMICAL COOLING COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE COLUMN TO RESULT IN
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, AND
CATSKILLS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW, WPC PWSSI DOWN
20-30% CHANCE FOR MODERATE IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW LOAD ACROSS THE
AREAS FOR THE TIMEFRAME OF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
NBM PROBABILITIES OF 4" OR MORE OF SNOW REMAINING TARGETED IN
THESE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS WELL. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO WINTERY IMPACTS
FOR SOME OF OUR AREA BY THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BEYOND THIS, UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO BEGIN MOVING EAST BY
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY, WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS
DEVELOPING IN IT'S WAKE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
AS OF 12:30 AM EST, BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST A COUPLE HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS AT GFL AND ALB, WHERE
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS WERE INCLUDED. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THESE SHOWERS,
MAINLY BETWEEN AROUND 12Z AND 15Z. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN ANY MVFR
CIGS IS AT PSF, FOLLOWED BY GFL. SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING
AND CIGS RISE BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY BKN TO SCT CLOUDS
BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID-
MORNING, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT (LOCALLY 25+ KT AT ALB/PSF) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FIRE WEATHER
IN COORDINATION WITH NY STATE, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED FOR THE MID HUDSON AND CATSKILL FDRAS, WITH AN SPS ALSO
ISSUED FOR BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN MA/CT FOR
TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. PEAK GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY,
CT, WITH GENERALLY 50 TO 70 PERCENT ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GITRO
NEAR TERM...GITRO
SHORT TERM...GITRO
LONG TERM...GITRO
AVIATION...MAIN
FIRE WEATHER...GITRO
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