244
FXUS61 KALY 200215
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
915 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A POTENT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES TOMORROW
NIGHT, BRINGING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPDATE
AS OF 0915 PM EST, THE CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENCROACH UPON THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WILL
STYMIE RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT; HAVE THEREFORE RAISED LOWS
BY A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S NORTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY, AND MID TO UPPER 30S FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST.
FORECAST OTHERWISE REMAINS ON TRACK; SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW...
PREV DISCUSSION [0630 PM EST]
HIGH PRESSURE EDGING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST, TRAPPED LOW UNDER AN
ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THESE INCREASING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR MOST. TOMORROW,
CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT A BIT AND SCATTER BRIEFLY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN
THE DAY/EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GROWS CLOSER. WINDS
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION STARTING
TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ROTATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SENDING AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
ADDITIONAL SURFACE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S, KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE POSITION
BY A JET STREAK, ALLOWING FOR THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
THURSDAY, THE GREAT LAKES VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND AS THE COASTAL
SURFACE LOW CREEPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO 40S. COLD AIR WILL REALLY START WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES INLAND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/HUDSON VALLEY AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AND A TURN FROM RAIN TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
TO JUST SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS MIGHT SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN WITH RAIN IN
HEAVIER PRECIP, BUT OVERALL NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1.00-2.00", AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO ABOUT 6 INCHES
OF SNOW. FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS WE ARE
GREATLY IN NEED OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SNOW CHARACTER
WHERE IT DOES FALL WILL BE HEAVY AND WET, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A POTENT, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. WE'LL SEE THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY WEAKENING, BUT NOT BEFORE IT PRODUCES RAIN AND SNOW,
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND AS FORECAST SNOW RATIOS INCREASE. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS (1000
FEET+) AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
0.15-0.40". MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE, SO MORE DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS AS THE EVENT
GROWS CLOSER. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PEELS AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH
SHOWERS COULD LINGER, PARTICULARLY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AT 10-15 KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE LOWER
CLOUDS AT 5-10 KFT ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL TREND CALM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH 5
KT OR LESS WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 12-15Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT WINDS OR 5 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE
GUSTY WINDS, MINIMUM DAYTIME RH WILL FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT,
AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
DESPITE STRONGER WINDS, RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 PERCENT OR
HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY, MITIGATING FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NWS BTV
NEAR TERM...NWS BTV/PICARD
SHORT TERM...NWS BTV
LONG TERM...NWS BTV
AVIATION...PICARD
FIRE WEATHER...PICARD
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