465
FXUS61 KALY 200540
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A POTENT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES TOMORROW
NIGHT, BRINGING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
UPDATE...AS OF 12:30 AM EST
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WHERE
HOURLY TEMPS AN OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES.
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN ADKS, AND
SOUTHERN VT WHERE MORE BREAKS OF CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S. ALSO SEEING SOME
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL NY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION, BUT GIVEN THAT THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY DRY AS SEEN ON THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING, MOST
OF THIS PRECIP ISN'T REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON LATEST NYS
MESONET AND ASOS OBS. THEREFORE, DID FEEL THE NEED TO ADD IN ANY
POPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH MORE DETAILS BELOW...
PREVIOUS
AS OF 0915 PM EST, THE CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENCROACH UPON
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL KEEP ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW. MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND WILL
STYMIE RADIATIVE COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, AND MID TO UPPER 30S
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE EDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
TOMORROW, CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT A BIT AND SCATTER BRIEFLY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GROWS
CLOSER. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION STARTING
TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ROTATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SENDING AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
ADDITIONAL SURFACE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST. AN INFLUX OF WARM AIR WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S, KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE POSITION
BY A JET STREAK, ALLOWING FOR THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION TO
OCCUR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.
THURSDAY, THE GREAT LAKES VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND AS THE COASTAL
SURFACE LOW CREEPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO 40S. COLD AIR WILL REALLY START WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES INLAND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/HUDSON VALLEY AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AND A TURN FROM RAIN TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
TO JUST SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 1000 FEET IN ELEVATION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS MIGHT SEE A FEW FLAKES MIX IN WITH RAIN IN
HEAVIER PRECIP, BUT OVERALL NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1.00-2.00", AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO ABOUT 6 INCHES
OF SNOW. FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS WE ARE
GREATLY IN NEED OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SNOW CHARACTER
WHERE IT DOES FALL WILL BE HEAVY AND WET, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A POTENT, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. WE'LL SEE THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY WEAKENING, BUT NOT BEFORE IT PRODUCES RAIN AND SNOW,
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND AS FORECAST SNOW RATIOS INCREASE. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS (1000
FEET+) AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
0.15-0.40". MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE, SO MORE DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS AS THE EVENT
GROWS CLOSER. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PEELS AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH
SHOWERS COULD LINGER, PARTICULARLY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING WITH MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A DRY
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL ENSURE CLOUD BASES AND CEILING HEIGHTS
REMAIN WITHIN WELL WITHIN THE VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KT. AND WHILE MOST OF THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN DRY, AN AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, POSSIBLY REACHING KPOU WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF
THIS CYCLE. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN LIGHT, BUT EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS
COULD DROP VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT WINDS OR 5 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE
GUSTY WINDS, MINIMUM DAYTIME RH WILL FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT,
AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
DESPITE STRONGER WINDS, RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 PERCENT OR
HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY, MITIGATING FURTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTV
NEAR TERM...BTV/MAIN/PICARD
SHORT TERM...BTV
LONG TERM...BTV
AVIATION...GANT
FIRE WEATHER...PICARD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page