208  
FXUS61 KALY 201145  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
645 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TODAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM, BUT A STRONG  
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN  
CHANGES OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR  
NIGHT, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF  
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. CONTINUED COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THOUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-  
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AROUND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
   
UPDATE...AS OF 6:25 AM EST  
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL  
FRONT REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH THE TRUE SFC WARM  
FRONT WELL SOUTHWEST ACROSS PA. WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS  
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION, WHICH HAS  
KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS MAY ERODE  
FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATER TODAY, BUT OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO  
BE FOR MORE CLOUDS AROUND TODAY, WHICH MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES  
SOMEWHAT DESPITE A RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS (850 TEMPS +6 TO +8C)  
OVER THE REGION. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/SKY GRIDS/DEW  
POINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A TRANQUIL DAY, WITH OUR NEXT  
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN TONIGHT...  
   
PREVIOUS  
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPER LOW LOCATED  
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA, ALREADY STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW.  
WHILE THESE FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD  
VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW STORM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
NIGHT, THE NEAR-TERM FOCUS WILL BE THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT  
ATTEMPTING TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY. EARLY THIS  
MORNING, WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CLOUDS HAVE  
RESULTED IN WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, WITH 40S SOUTH AND WEST  
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH MID 30S NORTH AND EAST.  
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE A DEGREE OR  
TWO BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE. TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST  
IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS WE WILL HAVE A WARM AIRMASS ALOFT BEHIND  
THE WARM FRONT, BUT LIKELY PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND ON THE  
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS  
AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR VALLEY  
AREAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY, WITH MORE 40S IN THE HIGH  
TERRAIN AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE THE  
UPPER LOW, SFC CYCLONE, AND ITS OCCLUDED FRONT TRACK TOWARDS OUR  
REGION LATER TODAY, WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENE AND WESTERN  
ULSTER COUNTIES FROM 4 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY*  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
- POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL A MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING RAIN TO  
THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN  
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.  
 
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...UPPER LOW SLIDES THROUGH MICHIGAN AND  
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW WEAKENS OVER  
MICHIGAN. ITS OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST  
TONIGHT, AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NJ COAST  
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER  
JET. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND  
TOMORROW. SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY  
THURSDAY OVER SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS, BUT OVERALL  
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SFC LOW WILL RETROGRADE TO THE  
NORTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY  
SOUTHERN NY/PA AS IT IS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. THERE HAS  
BEEN A SHIFT IN GUIDANCE FOR THE SFC LOW TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH  
AND WEST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE COLD AIR  
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THIS WOULD  
INTRODUCE A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION, AND COULD LEAD TO THE MID-  
LEVEL DRY SLOT REDUCING QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR  
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT DID APPEAR THAT  
SOME PREVIOUS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE BEEN HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK  
ISSUES THAT TUGGED THE SFC LOW TOO FAR TO THE EAST, SO THIS  
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE DOES APPEARS TO BE A VERY PLAUSIBLE  
OUTCOME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 12-24  
HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN  
THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 1000 TO  
1500 FT IN ELEVATION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE AND UPPER  
LOW CONTINUE TO SIT OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT THIS  
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND BEGIN TO  
WEAKEN, AND PRECIP BECOMES MORE SHOWERS IN NATURE FRIDAY.  
 
THIS AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM  
THE STORM SYSTEM. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 0.75 TO 1.5 IN OF  
LIQUID PRECIP, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE E/SE FAVORED UPSLOPE  
AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. THIS RAIN WILL BE  
MUCH-NEEDED GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY FLOODING ISSUES. AS FOR THE SNOW, THIS  
WILL BE A HIGHLY ELEVATION-DEPENDENT STORM. EASTERN CATSKILLS  
SEEM TO BE FAVORED TO SEE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH THE COLD AIR  
ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE THE HIGHER PEAKS  
OF WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY AROUND BIG INDIAN WILDERNESS AND SLIDE  
MOUNTAIN WILDERNESS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-10" WE  
DETERMINED PER COLLABORATION WITH WPC AND WFO BGM THAT WE DID  
NOT HAVE ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO  
WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH, AND THUS DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE  
ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS LIKELY. THE SNOW WILL BE OF A WET/HEAVY  
CONSISTENCY, AND SOME POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE  
SNOW BRINGING DOWN TREE LIMBS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MAIN TIMEFRAME  
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH  
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE CATSKILLS, UP TO A FEW INCHES  
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND  
ADIRONDACKS, BUT MORE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES HERE SHOULD LIMIT  
ACCUMULATIONS TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE A FEW WET  
SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN FOR VALLEY AREAS FRIDAY MORNING, LITTLE  
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LOW BOTH BEGIN TO  
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE EAST. WE REMAIN IN MOIST  
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED  
VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH NOT  
EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT  
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE MAY ALSO BEGIN TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT  
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY  
SATURDAY, BUT WITH DAYTIME MIXING, A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS  
ALOFT, AND NW FLOW TRAJECTORIES, THIS LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT LOOK  
TO RESULT IN MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA  
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS PERIOD WILL BE  
COOL AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S (TERRAIN) TO 40S (VALLEYS)  
AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
RESIDUAL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE  
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO  
DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE UPPER-LOW LOOKS TO  
REACH EASTERN MAINE/SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CANADA INFLICTING A NORTHWEST  
FLOW REGIME THROUGHOUT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND  
WITHIN ITS SOUTHWEST FLANK. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PULSING THROUGH  
THE MEAN FLOW AND PERSISTENT VORTICITY ADVECTION ABOUT THE BACK SIDE  
OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT VERTICAL ASCENT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE  
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS  
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN OR NEAR THE DIVERGENT, RIGHT ENTRANCE  
REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS SUNDAY AS A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST-  
ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP OFF LAKE ONTARIO. LOW  
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID  
30S IN THESE AREAS WILL PROMOTE SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS (>=  
2000 FT) OF THESE AREAS WITH RAIN, WITH SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXED  
IN, BELOW THE HIGHEST PEAKS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE  
OROGRAPHIC LIFT HELPS TO OVERCOME UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN AND  
NEAR THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK.  
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL NOT EXCEED A  
COUPLE TENTHS AT MOST.  
 
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN  
MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE TO REACH SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, AS DAYTIME HEATING KICKS  
IN, ANY SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED  
TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT POSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AS A RESULT OF  
THIS TRANSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER  
30S/LOW 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S  
ELSEWHERE. WEAK RIDGING THEN BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY  
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST.  
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY  
RETURN REGIONWIDE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO  
LOW/MID 30S.  
 
TRANQUIL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING AS THE  
WEAK RIDGE BECOMES WEAKENED BY A CLOSED LOW NEARING OUR OVERHEAD  
JUST SOUTH OF THE JAMES BAY AREA. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM  
FRONT WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES,  
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS  
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE MAXIMIZED AT SLIGHT CHANCE TO  
CHANCE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
(ISOLATED POCKETS OF UPPER 30S ABOVE 2000 FT) WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW  
50S IN LARGE VALLEY AREAS. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL  
TO THE MID/UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL  
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH MID- TO LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUING  
TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SKY COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING  
STORM SYSTEM. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS  
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, THOUGH A GRADUAL LOWERING  
TREND WILL COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND  
MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ONSET ANTICIPATED BETWEEN  
05-09Z. KPOU WILL BE THE FIRST TO OBSERVE RAIN FOLLOWED BY KPSF,  
KALB, AND KGFL. PROB30S WERE INCLUDED TO REFLECT THIS  
EXPECTATION. RAIN WILL BEGIN LIGHT SO VFR VISIBILITY IS  
ANTICIPATED AT AND JUST AFTER ONSET, THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY  
LOWER QUICKLY INTO THE MVFR HEIGHT THRESHOLD. BRIEF PERIODS OF  
MODERATE RAIN WILL FOLLOW THE LIGHT ONSET, LEADING TO MVFR  
VISIBILITY TO MATCH MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD  
WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.  
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH MINIMUM RH  
VALUES OF 45 TO 55%, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED  
RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, PER  
COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOX AND STATE PARTNERS IN CT/MA, AN SPS  
WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CT/MA FOR ONGOING DRY FUELS. WIDESPREAD  
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WHICH SHOULD PUT  
AN END TO ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST  
SATURDAY FOR NYZ058-063.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MAIN  
NEAR TERM...MAIN  
SHORT TERM...MAIN  
LONG TERM...GANT  
AVIATION...GANT  
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN  
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