663
FXUS61 KALY 202123
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINS TONIGHT THAT
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, RAIN TRANSITIONS
OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY EVENING. BY SATURDAY MORNING, MOST
LOCATIONS BECOME DRY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS AS OUR
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD. COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 3:40 PM EST... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH RESOLUTION AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET TIMING OF RAINFALL
TO BEGIN FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM EST, RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THAT CONTINUES INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. RAINFALL COULD BE
PERIODICALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY IN SOUTHERN ULSTER AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WESTERN GREENE AND WESTERN
ULSTER COUNTIES FROM 4 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY*
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE GREENS, SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, AND SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
CATSKILLS WHERE THE CATSKILLS ARE FAVORED TO SEE THE MOST
SNOWFALL WITH THIS STORM.
THURSDAY... WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. RAINFALL COULD BE PERIODICALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS WHERE
THE MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES UNCERTAIN, HOW FAR WEST AND
INLAND DOES THE CENTER OF THE LOW GO. FORECAST MODELS ARE
FAVORING IT AT THIS FORECAST TIME TO PIVOT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE THIS COULD BRING
WET AND HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS. THIS CAN'T BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THE
SNOWFALL IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT. ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET (FOR EXAMPLE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE
CATSKILLS) COULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES.
AS YOU GO LOWER IN ELEVATION IN THE CATSKILLS (BELOW 2500 FEET
IN ELEVATION), WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW RAIN TO
PERSIST LONGER BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW WHERE 2 TO 6
INCHES IS FORECASTED. IF FUTURE FORECAST MODELS SHOW A SHIFT TO
THE WEST OR SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
LOWER OR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. AS CURRENT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE LOWER THAN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
THE POPULATED CITIES IN WESTERN ULSTER AND GREENE COUNTIES, WE
KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 1 INCH AND 2 INCHES WIDESPREAD FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER
THAN 75 PERCENT) ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE THIS AS LATEST NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS DATA 4.2 HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN
1 INCH OF RAINFALL FOR 48 HOUR TOTALS.
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT TO THE LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION. THIS IS WHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE LOWERED FOR THESE AREAS TO BETWEEN 0.5
INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES. WHAT WE CALL A DRY SLOT COULD OCCUR
DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH GIVES US THIS BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. RAIN DOES RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS
OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING COOL TO THE MID 30S FOR
VALLEYS AND INTO THE 20S FOR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING BASED ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SO HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED IN THE LOW 30S. FOR SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS RETURNS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS OUR WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM NEAR NEW
BRUNSWICK TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. A SFC
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW TO RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN BRISK AND CHILLY IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS AND MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE VALLEYS. THE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMS EXPECTED OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SOME FLAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWER
AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES 25-50% CHANCES FOR A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE OF THE WET BULB
VARIETY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS
TO RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME UPPER 30S
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN TO SNOW SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. TEMPS COOL DOWN TO
SEASONABLE READINGS AND IT WILL BE BRISK WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
PERSISTING. THE LATEST CPC DAY 8 TO 14 FORECAST 27 NOV TO 3 DEC FOR
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WHILE THERE ARE JUST SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND,
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS BY
LATER TODAY, WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 5-8 KFT BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS FOR ALL SITES.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL START OFF DRY, BUT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A SOLID LINE OF STEADY MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT MAY IMPACT KPOU AS EARLY
AS 07Z, WITH RAIN STARTING AROUND KALB/KPSF 08Z TO 10Z AND KGFL
BY 11Z. THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY LOWER VISIBILITY DOWN TO IFR
LEVELS FOR ALL SITES WITH OVC CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT. THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH THE RAIN
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR ALL SITES.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 KTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AT THIS
POINT, LLWS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A BIG CONCERN, AS THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ABOVE 2 KFT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FIRE WEATHER
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 45 TO 55%, WHICH WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, PER
COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOX AND STATE PARTNERS IN CT/MA, AN SPS
WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CT/MA FOR ONGOING DRY FUELS. WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WHICH SHOULD PUT
AN END TO ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WEBB
NEAR TERM...WEBB
SHORT TERM...WEBB
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN
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