383
FNUS71 KALY 271115
FWSALY
SPOT FORECAST FOR BUTTERNUT FIRE...MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EST WED NOV 27 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 EST ON NOVEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
LARGELY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ASIDE FROM SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE ADIRONDACKS IS EXPECTED TODAY, HOWEVER WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS A STORM SYSTEM
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY ABOVE 1000 FEET ELEVATION, WITH RAIN AND SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH IMPACTFUL
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............29.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 7 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (46900 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (EST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........83 81 79 76 69 62 55 48 41 34 46
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............30 33 36 39 41 42 42 43 42 40 38
DEWPOINT........28 30 31 31 30 29 29 28 28 28 28
RH..............92 89 82 73 65 60 60 55 57 62 67
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 3 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 9 12 12 13 12 10 9 6 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.3 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 10 13 15 16 17 16 14 10 7 6
LVORI...........6 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 3
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 13 24 34 42 47 46 35 19 6 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR PR PR PR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT. SNOW LIKELY AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............29.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6
TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1400 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............5.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07 INCHES.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........59 45 55 66 76 82 88 94 95 95 96 97
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 30 40 60 70
TEMP............34 34 33 32 31 31 31 32 32 33 33 33
DEWPOINT........28 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 30 30 30
RH..............78 78 81 85 88 88 92 89 89 89 89 89
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W SW SW S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7
LVORI...........4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 5
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
THANKSGIVING DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW EARLY IN THE
MORNING. RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, THEN RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MIN HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............33 INCREASING TO 35 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 12
TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (21600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............6.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.65 INCHES.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........97 98 97 97 96 96 95 95 95 95 95 95
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN RS RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RS
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 90 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 90 90 70
TEMP............32 32 33 35 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 36
DEWPOINT........31 32 33 35 36 36 36 35 35 35 35 34
RH..............97 100 100 100 96 92 92 89 89 89 89 93
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE E E E E E E NE NE N
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 9 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE E E E E E E E E NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 9 13 16 17 18 17 15 13 12 12
LVORI...........6 8 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 6 9 14 18 20 22 21 18 14 11 11
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...PICARD
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MARSDEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2427296.2/ALY
.DELDT 11/27/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CHRISTOPHER.MARSDEN2@MASS.GOV
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