448
FXUS61 KALY 151423
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
923 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER COLD BUT DRY DAY SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING TONIGHT, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND
ULTIMATELY RAIN ON MONDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT MAY SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND
A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MILDER CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
UPDATE
AS OF 915 AM EST, LOW STRATUS CLOUDS, POSSIBLY
INITIATED OVER LAKE GEORGE, HAVE EXPANDED INTO THE GLENS FALLS
AREA. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. HOWEVER, HIGHER VEIL OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY LOWERING/THICKENING.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS AS EARLY AS 4-6 PM, SO HAVE NUDGED UP CHANCES FOR SNOW
A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY (GENERALLY 20-25% POPS IN THESE
AREAS), WITH BETTER CHANCES OF STEADIER SNOW REMAINING AFTER
SUNSET.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN MANY
AREAS, BUT SOME SHALLOW MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.
[PREVIOUS AFD]...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.
- LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN MOST LIKELY IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LITCHFIELD,
DUTCHESS, AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTIES FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE
AND SNOW AND SLICK TRAVEL DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 0615 AM EST, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO MID-TEENS WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY AS A VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS MOVED
OVERHEAD AND LIMITED ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
REGIONAL ASOS AND NYS MESONET OBSERVATIONS, BUT FORECAST
OTHERWISE REMAINS ON TRACK; SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS [0400 AM EST]...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE AXIS OF UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,
AS WELL AS A FEW NEGATIVE READINGS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
ACT TO STYMIE ADDITIONAL RADIATIVE COOLING, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY SLOWLY TRENDING FURTHER DOWNWARD THROUGH SUNRISE. DRY BUT
COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BENEATH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
SKIES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
AN UPPER LOW ON THE UPSTREAM FLANK OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITHIN A REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE APPROACHING LOW,
LIGHT SNOW WILL INITIALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 10S TO UPPER 20S, BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO WINTRY MIX AND ULTIMATELY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY, BUT COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO MIX OR SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE MORNING, YIELDING A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. EVEN WHEN LOW-LEVEL AIR TEMPERATURES
WARM ABOVE FREEZING, COLD ROAD SURFACES MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE ICE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
LITCHFIELD, DUTCHESS, AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTIES FROM 1 AM TO
11 AM MONDAY FOR THESE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE. DRIVERS
SHOULD PLAN FOR SLICK ROADWAYS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ELSEWHERE, NEARLY ISOTHERMAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES JUST BELOW
FREEZING WILL RESULT IN SLRS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, AND LIGHT SNOW
TOTALS OF A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE SNOW AND
WINTRY MIX TRANSITION TO RAIN BEFORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ENDS EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION:
ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW, LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER, WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 30S BEFORE WARMING TO DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN HIGH TERRAIN AND MID 40S TO
MID 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. RAIN LARGELY ENDS BY TUESDAY
MORNING, ASIDE FROM A LAKE-EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS REACHING
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF UP TO 0.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OFF DRY ON
WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME PRECIP BY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AS A PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAY HELP LINGER SOME PRECIP ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COOLING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ALOFT, ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE SLOWER TO
COME DOWN. BASED ON THIS, PRECIP WILL BE GENERALLY RAIN FOR
VALLEY AREAS, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS, CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. AS PRECIP STARTS TO
WIND DOWN, THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INTO
VALLEY AREAS AS WELL ON WED NIGHT, BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE DONE BY THIS TIME. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN, MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS. AFTER TEMPS IN THE 40S ON
WEDNESDAY, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE
EFFECT FAVORED AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 30S AND IT LOOKS A LITTLE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS WELL.
BY FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA, WHICH
SHOULD END ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SOME SUNSHINE, TEMPS LOOK COLDER, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S.
MORE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TRACK
AND PRECIP AMOUNTS, BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
INCREASING OVER THE REGION. BKN-OVC CIGS ARE IN PLACE, WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 20-25 KFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS
TO START THE DAY.
IT WILL STAY DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN, WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 15 KFT
MOVING IN BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WIND AROUND 5 KTS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
IT SHOULD START IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AROUND 02Z-04Z AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. P-TYPE LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY SNOW FOR ALL TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP MAY CHANGE
OVER TO A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS IT TAPERS
OFF AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN SNOWFALL, MAINLY FOR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER LIGHT, MAINLY 5 KTS OR LESS ON TONIGHT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PICARD
NEAR TERM...KL/PICARD
SHORT TERM...PICARD
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
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