210
FXUS61 KALY 160550
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING, BEFORE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND
ULTIMATELY RAIN LATER TODAY. SOME AREAS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT MAY SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
AND A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MILDER CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD,
DUTCHESS, AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTIES FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE
AND SNOW AND SLICK TRAVEL DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO LIGHT SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE TWIN
TIERS OF NY AND PA EARLY THIS MORNING. TO ITS EAST, LIGHT SNOW
HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN AN AREA
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS ARCS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN LOCAL AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY JET, RESULTING IN AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
RATES AND BRIEF MODERATE SNOWS.
AS A WARM NOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ ENCROACHES INTO THE
REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK, SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR TRANSITION TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT, THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
GENERALLY A COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY SUNRISE, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS. A FURTHER TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SCATTERED
LINGERING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90, BUT FEW AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARD TODAY WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, REACHING LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS TONIGHT BEFORE
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
- MILDER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING COOLER WITH
SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
STRONGER FORCING THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM. LINGERING LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VT BEFORE CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TAPERING OFF AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IN
CASE COVERAGE OF FREEZING RAIN IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE ISSUANCES OF ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOPING
FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90, WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO THE NORTH WITH SOME SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE
ACROSS THE SW ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY, WITH WEST
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S,
THEN DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO THE SW ADIRONDACKS
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF
ROUTE 28.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING COLDER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS A SEPARATE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT TRACKS NEAR/THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE TWO
UPPER SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PHASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TO THE
WEST OF OUR REGION, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY TRACKING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE TWO
UPER SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT AND WITH THE TRACK OF THE
RESULTING SFC LOW, BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FOR MORE RAIN FOR VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, WITH SNOW MORE
LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF I-90. AT THIS TIME
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL (>4") OF SNOW ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
HOWEVER, WITH MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES, SMALL CHANGES IN THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SFC LOW COULD RESULT IN CHANGES TO PRECIP
TYPES. IF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THEN WE
COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY.
ASIDE FROM LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, PRECIP MAINLY
COMES TO AN END BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION WITH W/NW FLOW. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20S(TERRAIN) TO UPPER 30S (VALLEYS) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
10S AND 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW)
ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OFF THE EAST COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WHILE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH THIS FAR
OUT AND FORECAST CHANGES SHOULD BE EXPECTED, THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS FOR ANY RESULTING LOW TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN US, A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION. HIGHS
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MAY REMAIN IN THE 20S EVEN FOR
VALLEY AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS, WITH BELOW-ZERO READINGS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN AREA OF FAIRLY STEADY LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR
THANKS TO REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOWFALL AT KALB/KPOU, AND
PRECIP IS JUST BEGINNING AT KGFL/KPSF. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IFR, WITH SNOW LOWERING
VISIBILITY TO 3/4SM TO 2 SM FOR MOST OF THE TIME, ALTHOUGH EXACT
INTENSITY WILL VARY AS BATCHES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS
ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE 3000 FT IN MOST AREAS, BUT THIS WILL BE
STEADILY LOWERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL WIND UP CLOSE
TO 1000 FT TOWARDS SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STEADY PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH IT MAY
SWITCH TO A LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A BRIEF TIME
BEFORE ENDING. IF TEMPS RISE ENOUGH AT KPOU, IT MAY SWITCH TO
PLAIN RAIN THERE TOO. A FEW LINGERING SPOTS OF DRIZZLE MAY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BUT MOST OF THE STEADY PRECIP
WILL BE DONE. HOWEVER, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR, AS
LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND SOME MIST WILL KEEP CEILINGS IN THE
700-1000 FT RANGE AND VISIBILITY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE AS WELL. A
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO A RETURN
TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN, AND CEILINGS
WILL STAY OVERCAST FOR ALL SITES AND MAINLY NO HIGHER THAN
1000-1200 FT AT BEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL START TO DEVELOP
AT KALB TOWARDS EVENING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 02Z-04Z FOR ALL SITES. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IFR DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS, MIST AND RAIN.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH KALB WILL START TO
BECOME GUSTY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS AND SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. FOR SITES WITH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, LLWS WILL
BE AN ISSUE, AS 2 KFT WINDS WILL BE 40-45 KTS FROM A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/PICARD
NEAR TERM...PICARD
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...MAIN
AVIATION...FRUGIS
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