045
FXUS61 KALY 161750
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS
MORNING, BEFORE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX AND
ULTIMATELY RAIN LATER TODAY. SOME AREAS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT MAY SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
AND A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MILDER CONDITIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITCHFIELD,
DUTCHESS, AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTIES FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE
AND SNOW AND SLICK TRAVEL DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE DUE TO LIGHT SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 0625 AM EST, LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION, MOSTLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH, ALTHOUGH FLURRIES AND DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN AREAS FARTHER NORTH
THROUGH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY AND IN SOME LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND THE TRANSITION OF SNOW TO
LIGHT WINTRY MIX AND ULTIMATELY RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS, A LONGER
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND RESULTANT LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARD
MIDDAY; WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. FORECAST THEREFORE REMAINS ON TRACK; SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [0340 AM EST]...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE TWIN TIERS OF NY AND PA
EARLY THIS MORNING. TO ITS EAST, LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION. AS A WARM NOSE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL JET ENCROACHES INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK, SNOW
MAY MIX WITH OR TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT, THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT GENERALLY A COATING
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY SUNRISE, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS
AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS. A FURTHER
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-90, BUT FEW AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FLURRIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARD TODAY WITHIN PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, REACHING LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS TONIGHT BEFORE
ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE WHEN
PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
- MILDER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING COOLER WITH
SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SEE THE
BRIEF BREAK FROM WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BUT WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE INTO THE EVENING WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEE A
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM 30S TO MID 40S SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TO UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
THEREFORE LARGELY BE RAIN, HOWEVER A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WHERE COLD AIR LINGERS NEAR
THE SURFACE, MOST LIKELY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. IF THE COLD AND MOIST
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS LARGELY DECOUPLED AND FAILS TO
WARM AS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL NONETHELESS TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND THEN TAPER TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHTS SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES,
ESPECIALLY NEARER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. BY THE AFTERNOON, A
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL AROUND -5 TO -10C AND WESTERLY FLOW ALONG
LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
REACH INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS NORTH OF ROUTE 28 AND WEST OF
ROUTE 30. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING TURNING OUT OF THE WEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN HIGH TERRAIN AND MID 40S TO MID 50S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
-BEHIND RAIN AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OFF DRY,
PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA.
BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLES AND BLENDED GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE
LOWER TERRAIN AREAS WILL BE SEEING MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO SEE SNOW,
EITHER ALL SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE IS ABOUT A 30%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4" IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS, SO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED IN THESE AREAS. LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS LOOK TO HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES, AS PRECIP WILL BE
ENDING BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH, EVEN THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT
LOOK TO BE COOLING BELOW FREEZING QUICKER. HOWEVER, SUBTLE
CHANGES IN THE TRACK COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE, SO THE FORECAST IS
STILL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AND SOME SNOW IN
VALLEY AREAS STILL DOES LOOK TO BE AN OPTION FOR SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
FOR THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL
BE ONGOING FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS ON THURSDAY, AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME STILL
WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S IN MANY AREAS WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPS WILL BE COLDER EACH DAY.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPS MAY GET STUCK IN THE TEENS FOR SUNDAY. BOTH THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST 850 HPA MAY BE AS LOW AS -20 C OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY
EVEN FALL BELOW ZERO. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THANKS TO A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM. SOME
LAKE EFFECT CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL THANKS TO THE VERY COLD
TEMPS IN PLACE ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THRU 18Z TUESDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL. SOME LAPSES TO LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE TOO WITH CIGS FALLING UNDER 400 FT AGL AT KPOU/KPSF. THE
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE DEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
23Z/MON ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS INTO THE
LOW MVFR RANGE MAY OCCUR AT KALB/KGFL WITH CIGS 1-2.0 KFT AGL. A
SHORT-WAVE AND THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAINFALL TO THE TAF
SITES 03Z-11Z/TUE WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN TERMS
OF CIGS/VSBYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LEVELS WILL OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT 14-17Z/TUE WITH CIGS RISING TO 1.0-2.5 KFT AGL.
THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 7 KT OR LESS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH KALB HAVING A SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KT. THE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME
PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE MORNING. LLWS
WILL BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT FROM 22Z/MON UNTIL ABOUT 11Z/TUE AT ALL
THE TAF SITES AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 35-
45 KT WITH THE SFC WINDS BEING LIGHT UNDER 10 KT. LLWS WAS INCLUDED
AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/PICARD
NEAR TERM...PICARD
SHORT TERM...PICARD
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...WASULA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page