240
FXUS61 KALY 161939
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
239 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES.
DISCUSSION:
WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
RAIN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST LIKELY
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM 0.2-0.5" THROUGH 7 AM
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR
ADVECTION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 10 PERCENT)
FOR ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO HAVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WHEN RAIN BEGINS LATE THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE LOW LIKELIHOOD AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHTS SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES,
ESPECIALLY NEARER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. BY THE AFTERNOON, A
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL AROUND -5 TO -10C AND WESTERLY FLOW ALONG
LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
REACH INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS NORTH OF ROUTE 28 AND WEST OF
ROUTE 30. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING TURNING OUT OF THE WEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN HIGH TERRAIN AND MID 40S TO MID 50S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
-BEHIND RAIN AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. LOW TERRAIN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN WITH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SEEING EITHER ALL SNOW OR
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT
A 20% CHANCE FOR SNOW OF LEAST 4" IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM HAS A 70% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW 32 DEGREES EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
BELOW 0 DEGREES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. WHILE THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST STRETCH OF WEATHER SO FAR THIS WINTER, CPC GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME
FAVORED AGAIN FOR THE 23-29 DECEMBER TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THRU 18Z TUESDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KPOU/KPSF/KALB/KGFL. SOME LAPSES TO LIFR ARE
POSSIBLE TOO WITH CIGS FALLING UNDER 400 FT AGL AT KPOU/KPSF. THE
WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE DEEP LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO
23Z/MON ESPECIALLY AT KPSF. A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS INTO THE
LOW MVFR RANGE MAY OCCUR AT KALB/KGFL WITH CIGS 1-2.0 KFT AGL. A
SHORT-WAVE AND THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAINFALL TO THE TAF
SITES 03Z-11Z/TUE WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN TERMS
OF CIGS/VSBYS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LEVELS WILL OCCUR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT 14-17Z/TUE WITH CIGS RISING TO 1.0-2.5 KFT AGL.
THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 7 KT OR LESS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH KALB HAVING A SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KT. THE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME
PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE MORNING. LLWS
WILL BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT FROM 22Z/MON UNTIL ABOUT 11Z/TUE AT ALL
THE TAF SITES AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 35-
45 KT WITH THE SFC WINDS BEING LIGHT UNDER 10 KT. LLWS WAS INCLUDED
AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TH
NEAR TERM...TH
SHORT TERM...PICARD
LONG TERM...TH
AVIATION...WASULA
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