904
FXUS61 KALY 162345
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MOST LIKELY AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE...AS OF 6:45 PM EST
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE
A BIT OF MIST/DRIZZLE AROUND THIS EVENING WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND COLD AIR HANGING TOUGH AT THE SURFACE. ASOS
OBS INDICATE WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
BASED ON THIS AND A REPORT OF DENSE FOG NEAR TROY, WE HAVE ADDED
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING, ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF
NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS,
SOUTHERN GREENS, AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRES. FOR THESE AREAS,
AND SPS FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS ISSUED THROUGH 11PM. BY
THAT POINT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. UP TO A GLAZE
OF ICE FOR AREAS IN THE SPS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. OVERALL, TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WAS ON TRACK, EXCEPT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, HUDSON
VALLEY, AND CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW ARE TRACKING THROUGH/NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING,
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN AROUND 03-06Z, LASTING UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. ONCE SHOWERS BEGIN, FOG/MIST MAY DIMINISH AND
VISIBILITIES COULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE FOR AREAS CURRENTLY SEEING
DRIZZLE/MIST. OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED ADJUSTMENTS,
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MORE DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS
WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM 0.2-0.5"
THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR
ADVECTION, EXCEPT FOR AREAS CURRENT IN THE SPS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHTS SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES,
ESPECIALLY NEARER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. BY THE AFTERNOON, A
MID-LEVEL COLD POOL AROUND -5 TO -10C AND WESTERLY FLOW ALONG
LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
REACH INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS NORTH OF ROUTE 28 AND WEST OF
ROUTE 30. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING TURNING OUT OF THE WEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN HIGH TERRAIN AND MID 40S TO MID 50S AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
-BEHIND RAIN AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. LOW TERRAIN AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN WITH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SEEING EITHER ALL SNOW OR
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT
A 20% CHANCE FOR SNOW OF LEAST 4" IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1030 HPA SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SUPPORT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NBM HAS A 70% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW 32 DEGREES EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
BELOW 0 DEGREES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. WHILE THIS WILL BE
THE COLDEST STRETCH OF WEATHER SO FAR THIS WINTER, CPC GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY INDICATES THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME
FAVORED AGAIN FOR THE 23-29 DECEMBER TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS
THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH PSF REMAINS MVFR. EXPECTING IFR TO LIFR
CIGS AND VSYBS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 03-05Z, AT WHICH POINT
RAIN MOVES IN. THE MIST/DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE LIFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR. IFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT
ALL TERMINALS.
TOMORROW, RAIN TAPERS OFF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF IFR CIGS LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, OR IF CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO LOW-END MVFR AFTER SUNRISE
WITH WINDS PICKING UP. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TOMORROW MORNING, ALLOWING FOR VFR VSBYS TO
RETURN AND MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS IS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST, EXCEPT AT
PSF WITH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT. WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD,
LLWS CRITERIA WILL BE MET THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT WIND WINDS AT
2000 FT VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z AT
35-45 KT. SURFACE WINDS DO PICK UP TO 5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTH
WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AFTER 03-05Z, CONTINUING UNTIL WINDS
SHIFT TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOME GUSTY AT AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT, ESPECIALLY AT ALB/PSF. GUSTS SHOULD
START TO DIMINISH TOMORROW EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TH
NEAR TERM...TH/MAIN
SHORT TERM...TH
LONG TERM...TH
AVIATION...MAIN
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